Close to five months ago I argued that Jessie Buckley was already unbeatable at the Oscars. So it still seems. The only time the Kerrywoman, acclaimed for her grieving turn in Chloé Zhao’s film Hamnet, seemed properly vulnerable was just before Christmas, when Rose Byrne, searing in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, bagged the big US critics’ prizes. For a heartbeat, Gold Derby, the venerable awards site, had the Australian actor marginally ahead in its odds. Buckley then went on to sweep the televised gongs: Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, the Baftas, the Actor Awards (which used to be known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards).
“What about Olivia Colman beating the hot favourite Glenn Close in 2019?” you say. There is one crucial difference. Close was the only nominee for The Wife, whereas Colman, up for The Favourite, represented a film with 10 nods, including one for best picture. This time Byrne, the challenger, is in the film with only one nomination and the favourite, Buckley, is in the best-picture nominee. No best-actress contender has been at such short odds since Helen Mirren won for The Queen, in 2007. You will struggle to do better than 1/33 with the bookmakers.
Yet there have been hiccups. In November the Oscar boffin Joe Reid wrote, in New York magazine, a much-misunderstood piece about Hamnet entitled “The year’s first Oscars villain has arrived”. His argument, soon vindicated, was that Zhao’s film, following William and Agnes Shakespeare’s contrasting responses to the death of their son, was just the sort of emotional heart-tugger to generate intemperate backlash.
Sure enough, a few thousand people were soon wondering, on TikTok, if they were “the only person who hated Hamnet”. You had a lot of this with La La Land a decade ago. You had a lot more (pre-social media) when Shakespeare in Love beat Saving Private Ryan to best picture in 1999.
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As Hamnet’s best-picture chances receded – failing at Baftas, a home race, confirmed it in third place, behind Sinners and One Battle After Another – the backlash slipped away and Buckley relaxed into a series of endearingly ingenuous acceptance speeches.
There’s a potential parallel. On the eve of the UK general election of 1997, the Westminster grandee Roy Jenkins described Tony Blair’s position as akin to that of “a man carrying a delicate Ming vase across a polished museum floor: one slip and it smashes”. Not until the last day of Oscar voting did evidence of an apparent slip emerge – and by then it was too late to matter.
Ah, Catgate. Has there ever been a sillier Oscar controversy? “I don’t like cats,” Buckley had said in an earlier interview. “Cats are mean.” Headlines frothed. Social media boiled. The star issued an immediate retraction on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon. “I am a lover of cats,” she confirmed. “I woke up this morning – does the world think that I really don’t love cats?” Mixed reviews of her performance in Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Bride! also arrived as the ballot boxes were being sealed. The game was already up. (Not that it would have mattered anyway.)
She can now say whatever the heck she likes. Barring Los Angeles sliding into the sea, Jessie Buckley will become the first Irish person to win best actress at the Oscars. (Brenda Fricker picked up the award for best supporting actress in 1990.) Amazingly, Buckley is just the third domestic nominee in that category, after Saoirse Ronan in 2015, 2017 and 2019, and Ruth Negga in 2016. This is the only one of the four acting races not to have had an Irish winner so far (though none has won in supporting actor since Barry Fitzgerald, in 1945).
There is Irish interest elsewhere. Richie Baneham, from Tallaght, seems likely to pick up a third Oscar for best visual effects, for his work on Avatar: Fire and Ash. Maggie O’Farrell, born in Coleraine, could share best adapted screenplay with Zhao for translating Hamnet, her own novel, to the big screen – though One Battle After Another does look hard to beat there. Andrew Lowe and Ed Guiney, nominated, as producers, in best picture for Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia, can enjoy a relaxing evening as distant outsiders. John Kelly and Andrew Freedman, nominated in best animated short for the lovely Retirement Plan, will know anything can happen in those races.
The apparent done deal in best actress should not distract from one of the most open Oscar bashes in recent years. Timothée Chalamet, long a strong favourite in best actor for Marty Supreme, dropped, like Buckley, his vase as voting was winding down. “I don’t want to be working in ballet, or opera, or things where it’s, like, ‘Hey, keep this thing alive,’ even though, like, no one cares about this any more,” he said in an interview with Matthew McConaughey. By that stage, however, Michael B Jordan, electrifying as twins in Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, had already made up much ground on the man who doesn’t care about offending opera buffs. A surprise victory at the Actor Awards confirmed Jordan as a contender. Ethan Hawke, up in best actor for Blue Moon, largely shot in Dublin in co-operation with Wild Atlantic Pictures, is probably just out of the running.
Sean Penn, nominated in supporting actor for Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, was, for much of the race, lurking in the wake of Stellan Skarsgard, imposing in Sentimental Value, but success at the Baftas and the Actor Awards now suggests that Penn, a divisive figure, could well join the select club of performers with three Oscars. Do not, however, dismiss the prospect of Delroy Lindo, one of the stars of Sinners, coming up on the inside rail. Much sympathy went the way of Jordan and the veteran actor as they struggled through the unfortunate moment at the Baftas when, in an outburst connected to his Tourette syndrome, John Davidson involuntarily yelled a racial epithet as they took the stage.
And nobody has any idea what is up in best supporting actress. Amy Madigan, winner at the Actors for Weapons; Teyana Taylor, winner at the Golden Globes for One Battle After Another; and Wunmi Mosaku, winner at Bafta for Sinners, all sound like plausible victors.
Best picture is also far from done and dusted. Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, an epic political thriller, has certainly amassed a lot of silverware: Directors Guild, Producers Guild, Golden Globes, Baftas. But Sinners, a social history of black America melded with a vampire flick, has the all-important gift of momentum. Its win in best ensemble at the Actors – the last big awards before the Oscars – recalled similar triumphs in that category from Coda and Crash before those films went on to upset at the awards that really matter. A Hamnet win is within the realms of possibility, but it would require the biggest upset in best picture this century.
Sinners, with mentions in 16 categories, goes into the Oscars as the most nominated film of all time, but the competition with One Battle is so fierce that, even if it were to win best picture, the record for most wins – 11, set by Ben Hur in 1960 and equalled by Titanic in 1998 and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in 2004 – is probably out of reach. (Also, Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein looks nailed down in a few craft categories.)
Pundits have found it hard to assess the impact of the new insistence of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, which awards the Oscars, that voters actually watch the films on which they are deliberating.
“Members are required to certify through the group’s screening room portal that they have viewed all nominated films in each category to be eligible to vote in that category,” Glenn Whipp explains in the Los Angeles Times.
The member can, however, merely tick a box indicating they have seen the film at a festival, a commercial cinema or wherever. Reports from anonymous voters in the trade papers highlight the obvious flaw. “I put Frankenstein at number 10 because I haven’t seen it, which is unfair,” one such academy member told The Hollywood Reporter. “But I ran out of time and decided to check the box indicating that I had so that I could support other films.”
Nonetheless, the academy’s guilt-trip strategy will, surely, make it a tiny bit more likely that voters see every film in the relevant section. Might this help outsiders? Maybe Rose Byrne isn’t out of it after all. Maybe Buckley could be outdone by a portal.
Will anyone be watching? Last year, the viewing figures were up marginally on the previous edition, and with Conan O’Brien, a popular host, returning there is every chance those stats could hold. But, two years away from the Oscars’ centenary, some aspects of the event need tightening up. In an online age, with so much coverage, it feels exhausting to have the ceremony as late as mid-March (even if it often fell in April during the 20th century). It will be almost a year since Sinners opened. It will be 10 months since The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value, both best-picture nominees, premiered at Cannes.
[ Off to the Oscars: The Irish film that’s making a big splash worldwideOpens in new window ]
Then again, the current situation suits us here very nicely. Falling between the daylight-savings shift in California and ours in Ireland, the ceremony now begins at the remarkably civilised time of 11pm. That, thanks also to a move in the Los Angeles schedule a few years ago, is a whole two hours earlier than Oscar fans endured a decade ago. You can now watch Jessie Buckley win in something like prime time. It’s on RTÉ One and everything.
98th Academy Awards: Who will win and who should win
Best picture
- Bugonia
- F1
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- The Secret Agent
- Sentimental Value
- Sinners
- Train Dreams
Will win: One Battle After Another. It now looks almost 50-50 with Sinners, but might there still be some resistance to awarding a horror film?
Should win: Marty Supreme. It is a good year. One Battle, Sinners, Hamnet and The Secret Agent would all be worthy winners. But Marty has an energy all its own.
Directing
- Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
- Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
- Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
- Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
- Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson. Yes, even if Sinners takes picture. Among the most acclaimed directors of his generation, PTA is overdue for Oscar recognition. This is his time.
Should win: Josh Safdie. Or PTA. Or Coogler. Safdie, however, does a more forceful job of imposing a singular aesthetic (whether you like it or not).
Actor in a leading role
- Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
- Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
- Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
- Michael B Jordan, Sinners
- Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Will win: Michael B Jordan. A nail-biter between Jordan and Chalamet. One more week and the momentum would have had the Sinners star safe as houses. We say he still scrapes in.
Should win: Wagner Moura. Performances of such enormous stillness rarely win. It’s a tiny miracle the star of the Brazilian flick made it this far.
Actress in a leading role
- Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
- Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
- Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
- Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
- Emma Stone, Bugonia
Will win: Jessie Buckley. What more needs to be said? Looked like a winner from the moment Hamnet premiered at Telluride in August. Nothing much has changed.
Should win: Rose Byrne. Forgive us. In a face-off between Byrne and Buckley, the Australian star has maybe just the trickier challenge. An enormously stressful turn.
Actress in a supporting role
- Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
- Amy Madigan, Weapons
- Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
- Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Will win: Teyana Taylor. The Sentimental Value duo have won nothing and are probably out of it. That noted, who the heck knows here? We’re going back to Taylor, the early favourite, who does a lot with a small role.
Should win: Teyana Taylor. Is it that small a role? If the film were 90 minutes rather than 162, nobody would be thinking it insignificant.
Actor in a supporting role
- Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
- Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
- Delroy Lindo, Sinners
- Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
- Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value
Will win: Sean Penn. Can you win an acting Oscar with the bare minimum of a campaign? We are about to find out. Wasn’t even at the ceremonies to receive his Bafta or his Actor.
Should win: Sean Penn. Okay, it’s not the most subtle performance. But not everybody can swell with that degree of simmering malevolence.
Casting
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- The Secret Agent
- Sinners
Will win: Sinners. A new award that already seems likely to tack closely to the best-picture race. To be fair, Sinners genuinely is cast in great depth.
Should win: Marty Supreme. Splendid combination of up-and-comers such as Odessa A’zion (robbed of a nomination) and unlikely old hands such as Penn Jillette, Kevin O’Leary and Abel Ferrara.
Animated feature film
- Arco
- Elio
- KPop Demon Hunters
- Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
- Zootopia 2
Will win: KPop Demon Hunters. The breakout release of the year will not be denied.
Should win: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain. Lovely Franco-Belgian film that bristles with inner intelligence.
Documentary feature film
- The Alabama Solution
- Come See Me in the Good Light
- Cutting Through Rocks
- Mr Nobody Against Putin
- The Perfect Neighbor
Will win: The Perfect Neighbor. This Netflix picture, about a 2023 killing in Florida, has the advantage of being much seen (and very good).
Should win: The Alabama Solution. Powerful, infuriating doc from Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman about inadequacies in that US state’s prison system.
International feature film
- The Secret Agent
- It Was Just an Accident
- Sentimental Value
- Sirât
- The Voice of Hind Rajab
Will win: Sentimental Value. One of the two films nominated for best picture surely gets it. Sentimental Value has more mainstream appeal than the oblique, brilliant The Secret Agent.
Should win: Sirât. Impossible choice. Five strong films. We just lean towards Óliver Laxe’s singular North African rave apocalypse.
Cinematography
- Frankenstein
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
- Train Dreams
Will win: Sinners. Autumn Durald Arkapaw would become the first woman to take this prize. And she deserves it.
Should win: Sinners. The oily, sombre look of the film is vital to its appeal.
Writing (original screenplay)
- Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon
- Jafar Panahi and script collaborators, It Was Just an Accident
- Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
- Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, Sentimental Value
- Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Will win: Sinners. It feels as if the writing awards are going to split between the two contenders for best picture. Fair enough.
Should win: It Was Just an Accident. Jafar Panahi’s Palme d’Or winner combines outrage, tension and wit.
Writing (adapted screenplay)
- Will Tracy, Bugonia
- Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
- Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell, Hamnet
- Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
- Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams
Will win: One Battle After Another. See “will win” above. Barely an adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland at all. But definitely an achievement.
Should win: Hamnet. O’Farrell and Zhao discover working cinematic correlatives for a popular literary text.
Film editing
- Stephen Mirrione, F1
- Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
- Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another
- Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value
- Michael Shawver, Sinners
Will win: One Battle After Another. Or might F1 get through as the most edited title? Probably not. This award often goes to the best picture winner.
Should win: Marty Supreme. Come along, now. The hectic rhythms of Marty are something else.
Music (original song)
- Dear Me from Diane Warren: Relentless
- Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
- Highest 2 Lowest from Highest 2 Lowest
- I Lied to You from Sinners
- Sweet Dreams of Joy from Viva Verdi!
- Train Dreams from Train Dreams
Will win: Golden. As in animated feature, nothing is stopping this cultural phenomenon. Arguably, more firmly nailed down than even Jessie Buckley’s award.
Should win: Train Dreams. Ah, here, give Nick Cave an Oscar, why don’t you?
Music (original score)
- Bugonia
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
Will win: Sinners. Ludwig Göransson looks likely to win his third Oscar for a film steeped in music.
Should win: Sinners. Jonny Greenwood does good work in One Battle, but Göransson is an arguable MVP in Sinners.
Sound
- F1
- Frankenstein
- One Battle After Another
- Sinners
- Sirât
Will win: F1. Yes, they often here award the film most likely to leave you with tinnitus. And you can’t deny F1 caused a racket.
Should win: Sirât. The synthesis of thumping techno with creaking trucks and echoing spaces allows no escape.
Production design
- Tamara Deverell, Frankenstein
- Fiona Crombie, Hamnet
- Jack Fisk, Marty Supreme
- Florencia Martin, One Battle After Another
- Hannah Beachler, Sinners
Will win: Frankenstein. It feels as if the awards fairies are hooked on the look of del Toro’s empty Mary Shelley adaptation.
Should win: Sinners. The heightened re-creation of a sinister American south was to die for.
Visual effects
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- F1
- Jurassic World Rebirth
- The Lost Bus
- Sinners
Will win: Avatar: Fire and Ash. Well, duh! Richie Baneham seems likely to be on stage again for his blue miracles.
Should win: Sinners. A beautiful sort of repellence.
Costume design
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- Frankenstein
- Hamnet
- Marty Supreme
- Sinners
Will win: Frankenstein. See production design above.
Should win: Sinners. Maybe honour a less flashy school of period dress.
Make-up and hairstyling
- Frankenstein
- Kokuho
- Sinners
- The Smashing Machine
- The Ugly Stepsister
Will win: Frankenstein. See costume design and production design above.
Should win: Sinners. The full sartorial gamut from suave blues pioneer to witchy presence to flat out ghoul.
Animated short film
- Butterfly
- Forevergreen
- The Girl Who Cried Pearls
- Retirement Plan
- The Three Sisters
Will win: Butterfly. Word is the voters are persuaded by the pocket study of the French swimmer and Holocaust survivor Alfred Nakache.
Should win: Retirement Plan. John Kelly’s lovely short, about a middle-aged man dreaming of a future after work, is narrated by Domhnall Gleeson.
Documentary short film
- All the Empty Rooms
- Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
- Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”
- The Devil Is Busy
- Perfectly a Strangeness
Will win: All the Empty Rooms. The momentum is behind Joshua Seftel’s film memorialising the bedrooms of those killed in school shootings.
Should win: All the Empty Rooms. Available now on Netflix, the film is economic and quiet in its rage.
Live action short film
- Butcher’s Stain
- A Friend of Dorothy
- Jane Austen’s Period Drama
- The Singers
- Two People Exchanging Saliva
Will win: Two People Exchanging Saliva. There is already a lot of chatter about this spooky film concerning a world in which kissing is banned. On YouTube now.
Should win? Two People Exchanging Saliva. Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata look to have busy careers ahead.
The 98th Academy Awards Ceremony is on RTÉ One at 11pm on Sunday, March 15th
