Case for change will be ignored at parties' peril

The findings of the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion, published yesterday and today, make a compelling case for three changes which the political parties would ignore at their peril. The first and second relate to the nomination of Mr Hugh O'Flaherty to the European Investment Bank; the third to the prospect of Mr John Bruton becoming Taoiseach after the next General Election.

The Taoiseach's admission yesterday that the people were right in expressing the view that the Government was wrong to nominate the former Supreme Court judge to the position of vice-president of the European Investment Bank can only exacerbate the strong feelings expressed by the electorate in a landmark poll. Some 68 per cent of voters nationally, including 61 per cent of Fianna Fail and 83 per cent of Progressive Democrat supporters, opposed the nomination, while only 14 per cent agreed with it.

Not only did the public disagree with the nomination, but 75 per cent of voters implicitly support the substance of the challenge being mounted in the courts by the Limerick lecturer Mr Denis Riordan. When that 75 per cent is broken down by party, some 70 per cent of Fianna Fail and 77 per cent of PD supporters believe there should be public competition for the £147,000 job. Asked whether the Government should continue to nominate individuals for key European or national jobs, or should all suitably qualified members of the public be allowed apply, only 16 per cent thought the Government should make the nomination. Some 9 per cent had no opinion.

It is difficult to see how the Taoiseach could maintain, as he did yesterday, that "the decision is made and the Government has taken a hit for it". The Government could take some comfort from this stance if it was sure the controversy had ended. But, the contrary is happening. Mr Riordan is to lodge his appeal in the Supreme Court next week. He is moving a motion to stop the appointment until the case is over. He is also taking the matter to the European Court of Justice.

The whole sorry saga unfolding raises the spectre of the dying days of the Fianna Fail/Labour Coalition back in late 1994. The then Minister for Tourism and Trade, Mr Charlie McCreevy, could see from the far distance of South Africa that Mr Albert Reynolds and Mr Dick Spring were on a collision course in a pride battle over the appointment of Mr Harry Whelehan as President of the High Court.

In the immortal words of the former Government press secretary, Sean Duigan, he witnessed the appalling vista of Mr Whelehan walking into the High Court as the Coalition walked over the cliff. These parallels are lost on the same players today.

If the Taoiseach cannot prevail upon Mr McCreevy to undo the decision to nominate Mr O'Flaherty, he should appeal to Mr O'Flaherty to withdraw. The decision is the major factor leading to a drop of six percentage points in support for Fianna Fail in the poll. The party, at 45 per cent, is recording its lowest rating in opinion polls since the 1997 general election. If an election were held today, according to a new formula devised by MRBI to take account of the overstatement of the party's support in polls and the declining turnout in elections, Fianna Fail would get 40 per cent in first preference votes. That leaves the party with the same result which it achieved in the 1992 and 1997 general elections.

For different reasons, the Tanaiste, Ms Harney, should review her support for the nomination. As leader of the smaller party in coalition, Ms Harney has taken the real hit for the decision. Her personal satisfaction rating has dropped by 13 percentage points to 46 per cent at a time when leadership is required to steady nerves over the defection of Senator Helen Keogh to Fine Gael. The poll shows no real impact on party figures but the PDs are coming in behind the Green Party and Sinn Fein, 5 per cent each, in support.

If the latest opinion poll was bad for the Government parties, however, it is disastrous for Fine Gael. The Fine Gael leader, Mr John Bruton, is recording a satisfaction rating of 39 per cent, down three percentage points, when Fianna Fail, more than any other party, is preoccupied with grappling with unprecedented sleaze. This is the lowest rating of the four main party leaders in the Dail. Furthermore, it puts Mr Bruton at his lowest standing since the 1997 election, and one of the lowest in his career.

The Fine Gael party, at the same time, is registering 18 per cent support, down four percentage points in two months. It has fallen into third place in Dublin. This is happening at a time when both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have conducted controversial inquiries into payments to politicians. But Fine Gael has failed to reap any advantage from Mr Dunlop's allegations to the Flood tribunal, the nomination of Mr O'Flaherty and the increase in the inflation rate to 5.2 per cent. Mr Bruton is an honest man who has devoted his life to public service. But, in all the circumstances prevailing in the poll, he is Mr Bertie Ahern's greatest asset going into the next general election.

An article by the MRBI's Jack Jones in yesterday's newspaper referred to "John Bruton's statement that Michael Lowry could rejoin Fine Gael when he had paid his debt to society and settled his tax affairs". It should have read: "John Bruton's statement that Michael Lowry could apply to rejoin Fine Gael . . ." (our italics)