Ahern is suddenly weaker as Haughey slugs it out

As someone who could never fairly be described as a fan of Mr Haughey, I never expected (nor wanted) him to go to jail at the end of his career. I never expected much, really - just that he would pay up what he owes. And everyone in Ireland knows what he owes. The thought that even that much can't be expected without dragging the whole story through the courts will sicken many.

And it changes the political outlook for 1999. Bertie Ahern is suddenly weaker. His Government is more vulnerable to attack, and the Opposition has something to sink its teeth into. And when it claims to reflect genuine anger in the streets over this issue, the Opposition is surely right. The biggest worry for Bertie Ahern has to be that this anger and new Opposition energy could spill over into the kind of mood that will make his Government shaky and unstable before the new year.

The Haughey issue will also give impetus to media and public interest in the two tribunals. No one can now predict with certainty that they won't reach into the heart of government. Although the Flood tribunal is beset with difficulties, its chairman and sole member is demonstrating all the air of a man determined to get to the bottom of things. The lower-profile tribunal chaired by Judge Moriarty is ticking away nicely (or dangerously, depending on your perspective).

What does this do to the Government? The first thing it does is put Mary Harney (and Des O'Malley) in the position of defending almost the last thing they want to defend. Their already pathetic situation will become entirely terminal if they are successfully branded as part of the Government that presided over Charlie being let off.

The second thing it does is drive a wedge between the Independents and the Government. They're already in a difficult position. Within their own constituencies, and among their own followings, they're under pressure to up the ante on each other.

Jackie Healy-Rea's antics, however pleasing they may be to the people of South Kerry (and that's doubtful), have put younger and less experienced colleagues under the cosh. Interest groups have their measure by now, and some of them will have to go into purdah if they want to avoid cracking under the pressure in the new year.

And outside the people directly represented by the Independents, there is an increasing sense that the power and influence wielded by a few individuals, with no coherent philosophy or message, is unacceptably disproportionate.

None of this means necessarily that the Government is on the point of collapse. Far from it. Those commentators who speculated before the Haughey zero-tax controversy that Bertie might be contemplating a snap election are probably grateful they didn't voice the thought too dogmatically. He certainly won't want to go anywhere in a hurry just now.

What it does mean is that stability is an issue for the Government now, in a way it wasn't for its first 18 months. And once stability becomes an issue, it tends to become a pretty all-consuming one, occupying so much time and attention that any thought of the vision thing goes out the window.

Bertie Ahern was a great chief whip in his day. Great chief whips (John Major is another example) have one big failing. Day-to-day management becomes a preoccupation, and the need to keep a focus on the longer term gradually disappears. And with it goes any sense that the Government has a purpose, a reason for being there. It's a vicious circle - and the enduring legacy of Charlie Haughey seems destined to drive this Government into that vicious circle. By this time next year, they will be tired, fractious, and unappealing.

All of this will be good news for the Opposition. John Bruton has had a hard time adjusting to the loss of office and finding his feet as leader of the Opposition. Ruairi Quinn has concentrated most of his effort in the last year on internal party matters. They are both now ready, and equipped, to deal harshly with any Government slips.

And the unfolding controversies that may well attend the tribunals seem likely to drive them closer together, and to find common cause in attacking the Government. That's more bad news for Bertie, because it narrows his options in any post-election situation.

The Labour/DL merger might well have done that anyway. The Labour Party, with its four new deputies soon, will be more Fine Gaelfriendly than it would have been. That's not necessarily a good thing - the best long-term option for the party, strategically, is to challenge Fine Gael at every turn. But events have a way of setting strategy to one side, and the building atmosphere in Leinster House is one that encourages the emergence of a coherent alternative government.

THE first major test will come in the summer, with the local and European elections. It will be a classic mid-term confrontation, which will further copper-fasten a relationship between the opposition parties. Fianna Fail should have easily expected to do well - the last local elections (an awfully long time ago) were bad for it, so it has a small base on which to improve.

But it will be a struggle now, and the Europeans will be just as bad. Fianna Fail have seven MEPs to Fine Gael's four and Labour's one. Then there are the two Greens and Pat Cox. Unless Fianna Fail puts some outstanding talent into the field, it will suffer serious reverses here - further increasing the air of uncertainty around the Government.

The bottom line in all this is that 1999 is likely to be a year of erosion for the Government, and a year in which a revived Fine Gael/Labour coalition looks more rather than less likely. Labour's polls are moving slightly up, while Fine Gael's are static, so it could be a fragile relationship.

But there will be one battle royal. Is there (there ought to be) a Labour seat in the European Parliament in Dublin? And who will win it if there is?

Book your tickets now, for the rumble in the (urban) jungle!

Tomorrow: Paul Bew on political prospects for Northern Ireland in 1999