Your business week: all the results, indicators and meetings

Paschal Donohoe will discuss how global economy might affect Irish budgetary policy

Half last year’s total business tax receipts came from just 10 companies, believed to include tech giants Apple, Microsoft, Dell, Google and Oracle. Photograph: Paul McErlane/Bloomberg via Getty

Half last year’s total business tax receipts came from just 10 companies, believed to include tech giants Apple, Microsoft, Dell, Google and Oracle. Photograph: Paul McErlane/Bloomberg via Getty

 

Monday

Indicators: Euro zone manufacturing PMI (Nov); UK manufacturing PMI (Nov); German manufacturing PMI (Nov); US manufacturing PMI and prices (Nov), construction spending (Oct).

Tuesday

Indicators: Irish unemployment (Nov), foreign direct investment (2018); euro zone PPI (Oct); UK construction PMI (Nov).
Meetings: Global Economic Developments: Implications for Budgetary Policy in Ireland with Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe (Institute of International and European Affairs, North Great George’s Street, Dublin 1); Digital Sales World Dublin (Croke Park, Jones’s Road, Dublin 3).

On Tuesday, Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe will discuss how the global economy might affect Irish budgetary policy. It is a macro question to say the least but one that will have been placed in sharp context by events last week.

In its latest assessment, the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council warned that as much as €6 billion, or 60 per cent of the Government’s corporation tax windfall, may be temporary. Such a reality would be likely to expose the public finances.

In 2018 business tax receipts reached a record €10.4 billion, more than twice the amount just four years earlier in 2014.

Of particular note was that half of last year’s total came from just 10 companies, believed to include tech giants Apple, Microsoft, Dell, Google and Oracle.

The financial watchdog said corporate tax, while inherently volatile, was particularly so in Ireland where the situation was strongly concentrated on a small number of companies.

“This, together with potential changes in the international tax environment, leaves government revenue particularly exposed to shocks,” it said, in an uncomfortable preamble to Mr Donohoe’s talk at the Institute of International and European Affairs in Dublin this week.

Unemployment
Meanwhile, the Central Statistics Office will publish two key sets of economic data this week. On Tuesday it will give figures for 2018 foreign direct investment, which actually recorded a decrease in investment in Ireland, from €798 billion in 2016 to €744 billion in 2017, largely due to withdrawals of investment by US and British companies, dropping €45 billion and €16 billion respectively.

On the same day, jobless figures for November will continue to tell the story of 2019, which has seen a downward curve towards “zero unemployment” (live register figures are released on Thursday). The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for October was 4.8 per cent, down from 4.9 per cent in September.

Last month the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicted Irish wealth would grow strongly.

“The unemployment rate will continue to fall to historically very low levels, albeit more slowly, with wage pressures becoming intense,” the Paris-based think tank said.

Wednesday

Indicators: Euro zone composite and services PMI (Nov); UK composite and services PMI (Nov); German composite and services PMI (Nov); US composite and services PMI (Nov).
Meetings: Eurogroup meeting and ECB non-monetary policy meeting; Irish MedTech Chief Executive Conference (The Galmont Hotel); ESRI annual Geary lecture – Tax and welfare reform: The challenge of labour market inequality (ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2); Irish Construction Law Conference (Talbot Hotel, Stillorgan, Co Dublin).

Thursday

Results: DS Smith, Build-A-Bear, Tiffany.
Indicators: Irish industrial production (Sep); Euro zone GDP growth (Q3), retail sales (Oct), employment change (Q3); UK new car sales (Nov); German factor orders (Oct), construction PMI (Nov); US exports and imports (Oct), factory orders (Oct).
Meetings: ECB general council meeting; Dublin Chamber elections briefing (Dublin Chamber, Clare Street, Dublin 2).

Friday

Results: Berkeley Group, HeadHunter Group.
Indicators: UK Halifax house price index (Nov); German industrial production (Oct); US non-farm payrolls (Nov), unemployment (Nov).
Meetings: Associated British Foods agm (London); Dublin Chambers Meeting Dublin’s Housing Challenge event (Dublin Chamber, Clare Street, Dublin 2); Irish European Law Forum on employment law (UCD Sutherland School of Law, University College Dublin).