SO WHAT are the risk factors of a recession-prompted lay-off becoming the catalyst for long-term unemployment?

The ESRI’s profiling experiment had a sample of 33,754 jobseekers’ benefit or assistance recipients, who all made their first claim between September and December 2006. It found 12,095 claimants, or 39.2 per cent, were “stayers” who were still claiming 12 months later, while 18,760, or 60.8 per cent, were “leavers” who had found jobs.

Factors that increased the chance of welfare-dependency included older age, having children, a prior record of claims, a history of casual employment and bad health.

High educational attainment, a recent history of employment and an ability to move for a job increased the chances of coming off welfare.

There were some differences for men and women. Being married and owning your own transport increased the chances of exiting welfare in the case of men. Claiming jobseekers’ assistance increased the risk of “stayer” status for women.

In one example of the profiling model in action, a male claimant who had been employed in the last month and was eligible for the jobseekers’ benefit payment rather than jobseekers’ assistance, and had the Leaving Cert, had a 41 per cent probability of leaving the Live Register within 12 months.

If the claimant had taken part in a community employment scheme in the previous five years, had signed on for more than 12 months previously, had literacy and numeracy problems, and lived in Donegal, the probability of leaving the Live Register fell to just 6 per cent.