Thinking the unthinkable: questions for sport after coronavirus

Joseph Overton wasn't known for his views on the sports business. But his work is being studied by people looking to exploit the hellscape that's engulfed the live event and broadcast market.

Overton was a right-wing libertarian from Michigan whose meisterwerk is beloved of political strategists seeking to shift public opinion their way. The Overton Window describes the spectrum of policies that are deemed politically palatable at any one time, framing the mainstream of ideas. If you're outside the window, you'll be viewed as a fringe zealot.

But over time, the window can be shifted to render the wacky outliers plausible to the general voter.

Trump’s Mexican wall, teachers with guns and Brexit are examples of ideas that moved from the margins of right-wing think tanks to mainstream debate. Usually the shift takes years of relentless lobbying and media management. But occasionally, every generation or so, a crisis brings the opportunity to move Overton’s Window with greater speed.

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That’s where sport is today. No ideas are off-limits, and decisions made over the next few months will shape the next 10 years. Some of them should be welcomed, and come from a position of expertise and good faith. Others less so.

Why isn't there a G20 for sport that organises the calendar and makes it more coherent from top to bottom?

Sport’s commercial and social clout is fought over by a disparate group of actors – from governing bodies, team owners and superstar players through to ambitious entrepreneurs, environmental lobby groups, sportswashing dictatorships and cheap money just looking for a quick return. Each has their own change agenda and they’re currently kicking the tyres to see where the weakness lies.

Event calendar

This process starts by asking questions: Why does the event calendar look like it does? Why isn’t there a G20 for sport that organises the calendar and makes it more coherent from top to bottom? Why is the Fifa World Cup every four years? What if all the famous football clubs played each other in a world league? Why do the top footballers earn so much? How can agents be tamed?

If Barcelona can use the crisis to get Lionel Messi to take a 70 per cent pay cut, why can't Premier League clubs permanently control their wage costs? Why not exploit emergency government policy to drive changes to player and staff rights and working conditions?

There’s too much financial risk in promotion and relegation, so why not close the top leagues and copy the NFL model, allowing owners to invest in new stadiums and the quality of the team with a guarantee of commercial returns? The biggest market is China, so why not play competitive matches over there?

Why don’t we release the potential of women’s football by freeing it from the clutches of the male-dominated Fifas and FAs of this world and setting up its own governing body in the style of the WTA, the women’s tennis body? Why don’t women play against men in golf tournaments?

Why aren’t there more golf majors and why aren’t they mixed events? The Ryder Cup is a cash cow – why don’t we have it every year, and make it global? What if there was a Formula One for golf, making each event more relevant and ditching the stuff nobody cares about?

Governing bodies

Do we really need so many sports governing bodies? Are they an enabler of change or a constraint? How did Parkrun and Crossfit become so successful, driving grassroots participation? Does televised sport help reduce obesity or encourage it? Why is the average Olympic TV viewer over 50 years old?

The biggest boxing pay-per-view event of the last few years was between two YouTube influencers

Why don’t we let the athletes take drugs to improve performance? What’s the difference between using data and AI to gain a competitive advantage and using drugs to do the same thing? Why can’t we let the public race against the athletes in real time using Peloton and other clever tech? Why did five million people watch a virtual Grand National live on TV last weekend?

The biggest boxing pay-per-view event of the last few years was between two YouTube influencers, so what would an Olympics for influencers look like? Isn’t the Lions tour an anachronism? Why don’t we play the All Blacks every year? Why is the Six Nations a closed league, why not open it to all nation teams and play it throughout the season, not just in the spring?

Betting drives so much sports viewing, why not embed gambling deeper into how the sports are organised, making it easier to lay bets in real time, and generating more money to grow the game? What sports events are most vulnerable? Which can be bought cheaply and stripped of its assets? Which teams are carrying debt and which have cash reserves to see them through this crisis? Which sports have the largest fanbases relative to their media profile? Where are hidden gems that require a small cash boost to grow quickly? Who are the best administrative talent and can we test their loyalty?

And on it goes.

The blank sheet of paper can be intoxicating, prompting a process that plays with the definition of unthinkable. Ideas and schemes that were previously off-limits can now be debated. Some of them will be great, others not so much. For all of them, however, the Overton Window is moving.

[ @RichardGillis1 ]