The week in business: UK election; property price update
Irish trade figures and new car sales data
How would markets react if Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn is elected as prime minister? Photograph: EPA/NEIL HALL
Indicators: Irish vehicles licensed for the first time (Nov); German exports and imports (Oct); US consumer inflation expectations (Nov).
Indicators: Euro zone economic sentiment index (Dec); UK GDP (Oct), manufacturing and industrial production (Oct), construction output (Oct), orders (Q3), Bank of England financial stability report; German economic sentiment index (Dec), current conditions (Dec); US business optimism index (Nov).
Meetings: Ibec HR Forum and Clinic (Ibec, Lower Baggot Street, Dublin 2).
Indicators: Irish tourism and travel (Q3); US inflation (Nov), economic projections.
Meetings: Falcon Oil & Gas AGM (Conrad Hotel, Earlsfort Terrace, Dublin 2); US Fed interest rate decision; Institute of International and European Affairs launch of 2019 Brexit Status Report (IIEA, North Great George’s Street, Dublin 1).
All eyes on market reaction to UK election
Just when it looked like Christmas was possible without the bah-humbug of Brexit, along comes a UK election and the opportunity for Brexiteers to fling the subject right back among the merriment.
If general elections are unwelcome at this time of the year then so is renewed debate and wrangling about how the UK might proceed with its departure plans from the beginning of 2020. All eyes will be on market reaction this week, particularly in the event of a Labour, or more precisely a Corbyn, win.
On the eve of the election, the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) will launch its 2019 edition of its Brexit Status Report series, which aims to provide a comprehensive update on developments to date including possible implications for Ireland.
A selection of the authors will present their insights, including Dáithí O’Ceallaigh, former ambassador of Ireland to the United Kingdom; Dan O’Brien, IIEA chief economist; and Paul Gillespie, director of the Constitutional Futures After Brexit project at the Institute for British-Irish Studies in UCD.
Indicators: Irish consumer price index (Nov), residential property price index (Oct); Euro zone industrial production (Oct), marginal lending rate; German inflation (Nov); US PPI (Nov).
Meetings: ECB interest rate decision and European Council meeting; Data Visualisation Day on data analytics (DCU All Hallows, Drumcondra, Dublin 9); InterTradeIreland equity advisory clinic (Rubicon Centre, Bishopstown, Co Cork); Small Firms Association Members Christmas Evening (Davenport Hotel, Dublin 2); ESRI Energy Finance Christmas Workshop (ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2).
CSO data to bring property prices in focus
Another year of fascination with property prices is drawing to a close and Central Statistics Office (CSO) data for October, due on Thursday, will bring the annual picture in numbers into ever sharper focus.
In the midst of the seemingly ever-present housing crisis, issues of supply, affordability, competition and mortgage restrictions continue to feed into the national consciousness.
September, however, did bring some news of a slowing tide. That month found prices were rising by just 1.1 per cent, the lowest level in more than six years. Prices in Dublin actually dropped by 1.3 per cent and were down by nearly 7 per cent in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown, traditionally the market bellwether.
At the same time other CSO data showed a significant upturn in third quarter housing completions. An 81 per cent jump in apartments related in the main to Dublin.
Ahead of Thursday’s update, the typical cost or median price of a home in the Republic stands at €265,000.
Meanwhile, the CSO is also to release its consumer price index for November. October’s numbers showed that decreases in the cost of hotel accommodation and airfares saw headline inflation in the Irish economy fall to 0.7 per cent, a pattern in keeping with the subdued level elsewhere in the euro zone.
Indicators: Irish trade statistics (Sep); Euro zone composite, services and manufacturing PMI flash (Dec); German composite, services and manufacturing PMI flash (Dec); US retail sales (Nov), export and import prices (Nov), business inventories (Oct).
Meetings: Euro summit and European Council meeting.