Ryan's vision is that Ireland could become a renewables powerhouse in the post-2020 period FRANK McDONALD { }

ENVIRONMENT OPINION:RENEWABLE ENERGY is all the rage, driven by a minister who fervently believes in its potential and by a European Union directive that sets binding national targets to boost its share of the energy market to 20 per cent by 2020, writes FRANK McDONALD

Last August, analysts Ernst & Young ranked Ireland as the 10th "most attractive" country in the world to invest in renewable energy - the first time it made the top 10. Factors included enhanced grid connections and new tariffs for offshore wind and marine energy.

The pro-nuclear International Energy Agency has said renewables will "play a crucial role in the remodelling of our energy system if we want to halve CO2 emissions by 2050".

And with just six months to go to the crucial Copenhagen summit on climate change, nearly every country - including oil-rich Abu Dhabi - is looking at alternatives to coal, oil and gas.

At home, even the fossil fuel-guzzling ESB has changed its tune, committing to a huge expansion in wind power and pledging to roll out a network of refuelling points for electric cars in a historic agreement with Renault-Nissan.

Spurred by Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources, Eamon Ryan, the Government has set a target of making 10 per cent of all road vehicles in the Republic electrically-powered by 2020.

Apart from setting a 20 per cent share for renewable energy by 2020 (more than double what it is today, Europe-wide), the EU's Renewable Energy Directive, adopted last December, specifies that 10 per cent of energy used in transport must come from renewables.

These would include biofuels, which became very controversial due to the widespread use of agricultural land to produce energy crops, leading to a spike in world food prices. As a result, Ryan revised downwards Ireland's biofuels target to a token 3 per cent, based on an assumption that less damaging "second generation" biofuels will be widely available.

But the environmental benefits of electric vehicles may be just as questionable if most of the electricity needed to keep them on the road is derived from fossil fuels.

Ryan's vision, impossible as it may seem, is that Ireland could become a renewables powerhouse in the post-2020 period by intensively developing both its wind and wave resources. Indeed, he believes that we could ultimately be in a position to export electricity to Europe.

At present, Ireland is nearly 90 per cent dependent on fossil fuels. And, with oil production likely to peak soon (if it hasn't already), pundit Eddie Hobbs has forecast we are entering an "age of scarcity", with oil prices as high as $300 a barrel in the future.

According to him, plans to build an interconnector to Britain are misguided, as its electricity is 70 per cent generated from fossil fuels; instead, we should build an interconnector to France, where 80 per cent of electricity is nuclear-generated - and 20 per cent cheaper.

Despite a vociferous lobby, it is unlikely that we will build a nuclear power station to supply "baseload" electricity - not least, as Finland has discovered, because of the enormous cost of construction and the unquantifiable long-term bill for dealing with radioactive waste.

Earth scientist James Lovelock recently clarified his controversial espousal of nuclear energy by saying it was a question of "horses for courses". Thus, Norway would continue to rely on hydropower to meet its needs, while Iceland could develop its geothermal resources.

But an overpopulated country like Britain would have no option but to build more nuclear power stations, because 95 per cent of its population lives in cities that need electricity.

So what will we fall back on? Not hydro - Ardnacrusha could supply 87 per cent of electricity demand after it was commissioned in 1929, but this has fallen to less than 3 per cent because of the exponential growth in demand.

Wave energy must be in the mix, even though it's still at an embryonic stage. According to John McCarthy, chief executive of Ocean Energy Ltd, Ireland could become a world leader in this sector, creating up to 20,000 jobs by 2020. Development of ocean energy was one of the objectives in the Government's Smart Economy document last December, and the sector wants to see this aspiration being implemented so that Ireland would have "first mover" advantage, like Denmark in wind.

Last month, a study by UCD's School of Engineering found that Dublin could reduce its carbon emissions by 28 per cent by 2020 in a series of smart moves, such as switching to renewables for its electricity needs and retrofitting buildings to save energy.

According to Gerry Wardell, chief executive of the City of Dublin Energy Agency, some 160,000 homes in the capital have a very poor building energy rating of E1, mainly because they lose so much heat through non-insulated roofs and walls. By carrying out basic improvements, it is estimated householders would save €700 per year. Little wonder that Sustainable Energy Ireland logged 94,000 calls after the Government announced its €50 million Home Energy Saving grants scheme.

Using energy more efficiently may not be as macho as building nuclear plants or harnessing the power of the Atlantic, but the European Commission has said it could cut consumption by up to 20 per cent as well as providing much-needed employment.