Opec will promise today to make "the necessary investments" to maintain spare capacity to avoid oil prices rocketing, in the clearest signal so far of the cartel's investment plans.
Opec officials at this weekend's World Bank/IMF meetings in Washington will also stress that oil-importing countries need to invest more in refining capacity, particularly in processing low-quality heavy grade oils that form a significant part of the cartel's output.
Oil has been trading above $50 (€38.75) a barrel for the last three months and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said high oil prices are the main short-term risk for the global economy.
Opec spare capacity - the cushion that the cartel uses to confront unexpected demand or supply disruptions - has fallen significantly in the last three years, to an all-time low of 1.4 million barrels a day (b/d) last autumn.
The cartel said that idle capacity would rise to 3m b/d at the end of this year as about another 1m b/d of new capacity came on stream.
However, energy analysts said this cushion might be smaller than Opec forecasts because of strong demand growth that is expected this winter.
The cartel said yesterday in its monthly report that capacity additions between 2006 and 2010 were expected to total another 3.5 million -4 million b/d.
However, with global oil demand increasing at about 2m b/d each year, there would need to a sizeable slowdown in growth to avoid further tight oil market conditions.
The message highlights growing discomfort in Opec about oil continuing to trade above $50 a barrel.
"We face risks if the situation of prices above $50 continues," a cartel official said. Opec has so far made only vague promises about future investment.
