BELFAST BRIEFING:Motivational guru will have his work cut out to convince business folk to look on the bright side, writes Francess McDonnell

BUSINESS PEOPLE in the North are being invited to attend an event this week which promises to demonstrate how many challenges can be overcome with the power of the mind and positive thinking.

During the event, Bryan Dunlop, a local motivational guru who served with the British Army's 2nd Gurkha Rifles, intends to train delegates to walk across burning coals at 1,100 degrees Fahrenheit. It is a sensation that many local businesses could probably easily identify with at this time, given the continuing slowdown in the North's economy.

But even Dunlop might be hard pushed to convince most business people in the North to err on the side of optimism. New research published this week shows business activity fell last month in Northern Ireland for the 11th month in a row and at the fastest rate in six years.

The Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) for October shows a steep decline in private sector business activity right across the spectrum. Construction, manufacturing, retail and service sectors all reported a downturn in business activity last month. According to the index many firms in the North say the marked slowdown in the domestic housing sector and the global financial turmoil has "resulted in deteriorating business and consumer sentiment".

The latest PMI highlights how volumes of new business have slumped in the North, while key export markets have also suffered because of the overall weak economic conditions. The knock-on effect has been a sharp reduction in staffing levels in private sector companies.

A new housing market survey due to be published today in Northern Ireland by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors will provide little comfort against the backdrop of these latest depressing figures.

The survey shows that there has been an increase in the number of surveyors reporting price falls in property in the North. Chartered surveyors blame the general economic slowdown, rising unemployment and a lack of finance as the key reasons.

Tom McClelland, the RICS Northern Ireland spokesman, says that there is strong anticipation that first-time buyer sales could begin to recover in the months ahead because houses are now more affordable. But he admits no one in the North is holding out any hope of a miraculous recovery in house prices any time soon.

"With the economy now entering recession and the number of redundancies rising, the reality is that a recovery of the housing market as a whole is still some way off," McClelland says.

"On the whole, with average prices having fallen around 30 per cent to date, and more in some sectors of the market, the expectation is that steep price declines in the average house price will not take place in 2009.

"Housing surveys may continue to report steep declines in the months ahead, but the reality is that this is a filtering through of price falls that have already taken place," McClelland adds.

This could be interpreted as a positive development, but it contributes to an overall picture of the North's economy which is getting darker every week. There are few businesses and companies in Northern Ireland that have been lucky enough to escape the slowdown in the economy.

There are some such as Wrightbus in Ballymena, which recently won a contract in California to provide 50 environmentally-friendly vehicles. While other firms in the North are contracting, the Co Antrim company has just signed up 70 apprentices to its engineering and design divisions.

There are other successes such as the Belfast-based shopfitters Portview Fit-Out who recently won a major contract to help complete the new £1.7 billion luxury shopping development, the Westfield Centre, in London.

There are also many Northern Ireland firms continuing to aim for success, such as the ambitious audio-processing technology specialist APT. The Belfast-based company last month clinched an important technology agreement for its future with Creative.

But for all the companies in the North who are winning against the odds, there are many more who are losing the fight.

This is plainly evident from the increasing numbers of people joining the ranks of the unemployed each month and the number of companies warning of redundancies in the pipeline.

Economy Minister Arlene Foster this week appealed to her fellow politicians to put aside their differences and get to work on a plan to help rescue the local economy. She is warning that the North is faced with a range of unprecedented economic challenges arising from the downturn in the global economy.

Foster believes it is time for politicians in the North to prove that they can show leadership and steer the economy through the difficult times ahead.

But she is also calling on people in the North not to exaggerate or wallow in the current recession - she wants the North to be ready to take advantage of the upturn in the global economy when it finally arrives.

Positive thinking may empower you to walk across burning coals at 1,100 degrees Fahrenheit for a short period of time. The only problem is how long can you bear to walk on those coals? The big dilemma facing many businesses in the North this week is do they have what it takes to survive in the coalface of a recession?

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