Market drifts as Telecom factor is set to disrupt

Wall Street might have shrugged off any fears over tomorrow's US inflation data and the possible impact on interest rates, but…

Wall Street might have shrugged off any fears over tomorrow's US inflation data and the possible impact on interest rates, but European markets drifted lower and the Irish market was down by a little more than 1 per cent.

Trading on the market in the next three weeks will be complicated by the Telecom Eireann factor, with suggestions in some sections of the market that front-line shares such as AIB, Bank of Ireland, CRH and Smurfit may suffer selling pressure as institutions line up cash for Telecom.

There is also the factor that Telecom is perceived by many overseas investors as a far more accurate proxy for the Irish economy and that these institutions might shift their exposure towards Telecom rather than the other big Irish stocks.

Whether that scenario comes to pass remains to be seen, but one thing is certain - the onset of Telecom will absolutely dominate the market for the next few weeks. It will also have the stockbroking fraternity salivating at the prospect of hundreds of thousands of Telecom shareholders, many of whom will undoubtedly want to take a quick profit when the shares begin trading in mid-July.

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The market was weak right across the board yesterday, with AIB down 29 cents on €13.51 (£10.64), Bank of Ireland weaker again at €16.40 (£12.92), a fall of 30 cents while industrial blue-chip CRH lost 15 cents to €17.55 (£13.82). Smurfit gave up some of its recent gains and lost five cents to €2.65 (£2.09) but is still reasonably well-supported after bullish broker research.