Live Register shows small increase in unemployment

The seasonally-adjusted rate of unemployment rose again in August to 159,100, according to the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

This was an increase of 200 on the figure at the end of July. The unadjusted Live Register was also up in August from 168,509 to 169,393, a rise of just over 0.5 per cent.

On a 12-month basis, the seasonally-adjusted rate was down by 3.9 per cent, from 165,600 to 159,100.

The CSO said the standardised rate of unemployment now stands at 4.3 per cent, up fractionally from 4.2 per cent recorded in the quarterly National Household Survey, which is recognised as the more accurate measure of unemployment, as the register includes people in part-time or casual work.

The most recent survey indicated that there were 84,700 people unemployed.

The regional breakdown of the August Live Register shows an increase in the mid-east region with a rise of 1.3 per cent during the month.

There were significantly more males on the register in August (97,216) compared to females (78,600).

Davy, in a note on the figures, said the increase in the seasonally-adjusted rate was marginal but added that there were clear signs of a long-term trend. "There has been a definite upward trend in numbers signing on since the recent cyclical low in April," said economists Robbie Kelleher and Rossa White.

"Between July 2003 and April 2005, numbers on the register dropped 23,000 or 13 per cent. Since April, however, there has been a steady increase."

The economists said they could make a "tentative guess" at what the next quarterly household survey would find. This research, due out at the end of the month, was likely to show unemployment growth running at about 4 per cent.

Alan McQuaid, chief economist with Bloxham, said the weakness in the tourism sector was probably relevant to the current figures, with fewer temporary staff being employed for the peak summer period than in previous years.

"Given the small rise in the seasonally-adjusted figures, not surprisingly the standardised monthly unemployment rate calculated using the Live Register data based on the most up-to-date quarterly national household figures, remained unchanged at 4.3 per cent, but still exactly half the euro-zone average of 8.6 per cent," he said.

Despite recent job losses in the manufacturing sector, the resilience displayed by the Irish labour market in 2004 had continued in the first half of 2005, he claimed.

"The bulk of the annual rise in jobs in the opening quarter came from the construction and financial services sectors.

"This trend is likely to continue over the remainder of the year, but against that we are likely to see more job losses in the manufacturing side between now and year-end as this sector continues to face increasing competitive pressures from the likes of China, India and Eastern Europe," he added.