THE Minister for Finance will begin his 3.45p.m.. His speech will be relatively short, lasting about an hour and a quarter.
The following are the expected main points of the Budget, in the approximate order in which Mr Quinn will address them under the headings: Work, Promoting Enterprise and Social Solidarity.
OPENING POSITION
After a brief introduction, Mr Quinn will announce the priority areas of the Budget. He will then review the performance of the economy last year and look at this year, before looking back briefly to the 1996 Budget outturn.
PUBLIC FINANCES
The Minister will commit the Government to meeting the Manstricht criteria for joining the single currency. He will then announce his opening Exchequer Borrowing Requirement. This was shown at £380 million in the pre-Budget White Paper. This may be reduced by £20 to £50 million due to Departmental balances carried over from last year. He will then introduce his 1996 targets, with the EBR likely to be 1.5 or 1.6 per cent of gross national product.
In a change from previous years, Mr Quinn will also outline key targets for the next three years as a result of the move to multi-annual budgeting announced last year. The Minister is also likely to focus more on the General Government Deficit - the measure used for EU comparisons - rather than the EBR in the run-up to joining the single currency.
REWARDING WORK
PRSI: Mr Quinn is expected to cut the rate of employees' PRSI from 5.5 to 4.5 per cent. He could also raise the £80 weekly which is currently exempt from the levy. He is also likely to confirm an increase in the ceiling at which employees pay tax from £22,300 to £23,200.
Income Tax: A cut is expected in the standard income tax rate from 27 per cent to 26 per cent. The standard rate tax band is also expected to be widened significantly by £500 for a single person and £1,000 for a married couple. The personal tax allowances are also expected to be raised by £250 for a single person and £500 for a married couple. However, the restrictions in mortgage relief will continue.
There will also be an increase in the income exemption limit beyond which no tax is paid. The thresholds for the payment of the employment and training levies are also expected to rise. The 48 per cent higher rate tax will remain the same.
PROMOTING ENTERPRISE
Significant moves are expected in business taxation. The 38 per cent rate for corporation tax will be cut to 36 per cent, a similar move is expected in the 30 per cent rate for the first £50,000 of profits. The income threshold for the lower rate of employers' PRSI will rise to £13,500 from £13,000. But the employers' PRSI ceiling is also likely to be increased from £26,800 to £27,900.
The music and film business expansion schemes are likely to remain much as they are while some moves may be made to limit incentives for hotel investment.
SOCIAL SOLIDARITY
Social welfare: In general, payments are expected to rise by about 3 per cent a year, although there will be considerable variation.
Child Benefit: Most of the rises will go to larger families, with the third child and above receiving an extra £6. First and second children will only see a £1 rise.
Long-term unemployment: This will be one of the main elements of the package. A range of measures will be announced to provide incentives for the unemployed to return to the workforce.
The family income supplement will be altered to allow a greater number of families to claim this benefit and iron out some of the anomalies of the system.
Indirect taxes: Increases in tobacco are expected but there will be no rise for alcohol. Petrol prices are also likely to increase but still remain below the price in Northern Ireland.
Conclusion: Mr Quinn will briefly refer to his three main themes. He is likely to resume his seat at about 5 p.m.
