EMU given little currency as election issue for parties

TURN to any media coverage of the British election and it is clear that the single currency is one of the big issues Not as big as "sleaze", maybe, but still one of the issues coming up in any of the major discussions between the parties. But in Ireland things are different. Here the pre election debate has been dominated by a bit of jousting over water charges and when the campaign proper starts we are likely to have a focus on the tax reductions which each side will promise. The single currency will not be a hot election issue.

The broad political support for Ireland's participation in the first wave moving to EMU is the main explanation why the issue is not on the election agenda.

In Britain, the Tories and Labour are vying to say as little as possible, while not doing anything to upset their Euro sceptic lobbies. Here, the Government parties and Fianna Fail have given firm commitment to support first phase membership, although the Progressive Democrats have taken a slightly more cautious stance.

Debate would be useful on the pros and cons of membership. But if we are fully committed to membership, the real issue which should be thrashed out in the election campaign is how we should be preparing for monetary union. This topic may not raise the political temperature as much as water charges but, in the long run, it will be a lot more important to a lot more people.

The arguments for and against EMU membership are, by now, well rehearsed. But what about the need to prepare the economy for membership?

A key issue will be introducing flexibility to allow the economy to respond to "shocks" once inside EMU. The most obvious shock - though not the only possible one - which could affect the Irish economy more than other members of the union, would be a sharp change in the value of sterling.

Once inside monetary union, there would be no possibility of adjusting the pound to offset a sterling move. So the emphasis must be on creating enough room in the national budget to give the Government of the day some room to try to offset a development such as a sharp sterling devaluation through taxation and spending measures. Remember, the budget deficit will be limited to 3 per cent under the rules which will apply to members of the single currency. While Irish borrowing this year will be well under this figure, the national finances are likely to become tighter as - growth falters and the inflow of EU funds - slows after 1999.

In a study on EMU published yesterday, Mr Philip Halpin, of National Irish Bank, while strongly supporting the case for Irish membership, argues that a stabilisation fund is necessary at European level to help states hit by economic shocks inside the union. This would increase the stability of the entire system, he argues. The same point is made in a report this week from the National Economic and Social Council.

The trouble is, most of the other EU member states have set their faces against such an idea. And, with a limited number of people able to move from one part of the union to another to find jobs - the other classic balancing mechanism in a single currency area - the onus will fall completely on individual member states to ensure they are flexible enough to adjust to economic shocks. Otherwise employment and national income levels will fall.

Policymakers must realise that, as the NESC put it, the benefits of EMU "are not automatic". The potential gains may be considerable, but only if productivity levels can keep pace with other members of the union and we can be sufficiently light on our feet to adjust to problems.

Clear Irish policy approaches are also needed on other key issues. How will our representatives vote when the time comes to decide who is in and who is out? And what is our position on the rates at which the member currencies will be fixed - doing so at current rates would be likely to peg the pound too high against the other member currencies?

Despite all this, it will be a surprise if the single currency gets more than a cursory mention in the election manifestoes. If any of the parties are doing serious thinking on the issue, they have kept it will hidden so far.