Slight rise in industrial output

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION increased slightly in July compared to a month earlier, according to figures released by the Central Statistics Office yesterday.

A 0.5 per cent month-on-month rise continues a trend of small monthly changes in a usually volatile indicator. This trend has been in evidence since September of last year.

In the three months to July 2011, the seasonally adjusted volume of industrial production fell by 0.3 per cent compared to the preceding quarter.

Since last autumn, output has been broadly stable, if at high levels, although volumes are still down 6 per cent over the last 12 months.

The stability in output is to be seen across all three manufacturing sectors by broad category – consumer, capital and intermediate good.

Figures for new orders in July, published with the production data, showed a 2.3 per cent month on month increase. Order books have been broadly unchanged for four months.

As yet, both sets of figures do not suggest that the slowdown in the global economy is negatively affecting the manufacturing sector, which accounts for the bulk of industrial production and which exports almost all of its output.

However, Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Bloxham Stockbrokers, described the figures as “disappointing”.

“When compared to the strong performance of the industrial sector in the second half of 2010 and the healthy average growth rate in manufacturing output of 8.3 per cent for last year as a whole, the figures in 2011 to date are somewhat disappointing,” Mr McQuaid said.

“A lot will depend on what happens to the world economy and global demand in the next few months.”