In this strangest of recessions, what happens next for Ireland?
The more restrictions and the longer they last, the bigger the economic hit
Cliff Taylor: We appear to be on some kind of strange economic plateau. Photograph: Gareth Chaney/Collins
First we thought we were shutting the economy down for a few weeks. Then it quickly became clear that we were in a longer-running battle. Now we have seen a significant lift in activity as the worst of the early restrictions were lifted, but the outlook is clouded again by the fear that parts of the economy will open and close for a prolonged period as the virus ebbs and flows.
We appear to be on some kind of strange economic plateau. Activity has risen from the valley of the initial shutdown but it is not clear what further progress we can make in climbing back to the previous level of activity. The latest restrictions in Dublin and Donegal, and talk of more to come, now pose another threat, with business sources reporting a definite pulling back in business plans across the economy to “wait and see” what happens.