Keir Starmer appears to be a marked man these days. Even before the Peter Mandelson saga threatened to topple his premiership, his tenure in charge had been a succession of crises and U-turns.
At times the British prime minister has looked like a passenger in his own government.
The narrow political strait he operates in is bounded on the right by Reform UK and immigration, and on the left by the Liberal Democrats and the Greens and the vexed question of EU membership.
He can’t chase Reform on immigration without destroying his political base, while pushing to rejoin the EU would – in his view – be too divisive and give Reform another stick to beat him with.
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June will mark the 10th anniversary of the UK’s Brexit vote. The intervening period has seen five prime ministers come and go and the sixth (Starmer) now appears to be on the ropes.
That level of prime-ministerial churn is unprecedented in British history and points to a polity in turmoil.
Analysts say no party has been able to set out a compelling political vision for the public to latch on to, hence the political drift.
Polls suggest more than half the British public would now vote to rejoin the bloc if given the chance. One poll suggests 80 per cent of 16-24 year olds are in favour of rejoining.
Before June’s Brexit anniversary, Starmer is headed for what the polls predict will be a bruising encounter with the electorate in next month’s regional and local elections, one that could seal his fate.
His party is on course for a virtual wipeout in Wales, a major reversal in Scotland and what some forecast will be an evisceration in England even in so-called Red Wall areas.
And that’s if Starmer makes it that far. He must first disentangle himself from the scandal that is single-handedly killing his premiership: his decision to appoint Epstein confidant and friend Mandelson to the post of UK ambassador to Washington.
Kerry Group CEO on the impact of Middle East conflict, AI and drive to keep bread fresher for longer
Our guest this week on Inside Business is Edmond Scanlon, chief executive of Kerry Group, the global food ingredients player and one of Ireland’s biggest stock market companies.The Tralee-based company has left behind its dairy roots to focus on high value nutrition and ingredients, supplying major food companies around the world.Edmond joins host Ciarán Hancok in studio to discuss how Kerry Group has created ingredients that have reduced the salt and sugar levels in popular foods without compromising on taste while also keeping prices down.It is also working on ways to extend the life of bread, so it lasts for up to two weeks.Edmond also explains how the current Middle East conflict is affecting its operations in the region and why the weak dollar, rather than Donald Trump’s tariffs, are impacting on its operations in the US.Produced by John Casey with JJ Vernon on sound.
Ironically, Starmer never met Epstein and never cultivated him as a contact but he could end up being Epstein’s first major political casualty.
Another irony is the fact that Starmer’s most popular policy, the one that plays best with the British public, is the one that he has sought most to avoid, distancing himself from Donald Trump. His decision to keep Britain out of the US’s war on Iran enjoys widespread support even though it has fractured the UK’s “special relationship” with Washington.
Trump’s increasing unpopularity in Europe even among right-wingers has wrong-footed Reform leader Nigel Farage, one of Trump’s original cheerleaders.
Starmer, by nature, is an incrementalist, preferring to chip away at the political challenges of the day like the country’s friction-laden trade with the EU rather than announcing sweeping policy pivots.
His leadership style also seems to preclude the sort of strategic vision setting to convince voters of the need to rejoin the EU and face down the rabble-rousing that a second referendum would entail.
Instead Starmer’s EU policy seeks a modest “reset” in relations with Brussels and a fostering of closer ties through regulatory alignment.
It’s a sort of crabwalk.
Britain voted to leave the EU in the hope it could do two things: control immigration and do a large economy-affirming trade deal with the US.
In 2016 the world was still in the expanding mushroom cloud of globalisation. Countries, in the main, sought to do trade deals and shed tariff barriers. The necessity of being inside a political bloc as an insurance against bullying or an actively hostile US president wouldn’t have been a calculation.
The timing of Britain’s exit couldn’t have been worse.
It now finds itself in a different world, politically marginalised and economically vulnerable.
The UK is more exposed than most of its peers to the energy price shock because of its lower growth outlook, higher inflation trajectory and tighter budgetary constraints.
It already pays a premium to borrow because of these factors.
One analysis suggests the conflict could blow a £16 billion hole in chancellor Rachel Reeves’s budget plans
The UK economy has been weak or stagnant since the financial crisis of 2008, a trend that is linked to weaker productivity, a complex issue but one that has been amplified by Brexit.
The country’s EU divorce has curtailed trade and dampened investment. Estimates of the Brexit drag vary.
The UK’s fragility probably requires several remedy measures, but easing EU trade restrictions and cutting red tape could be one way to boost growth.
The rationale for pooling resources (economic and political) with its continental neighbours will only grow with Trump in the White House and the economy continuing to flag.
Starmer admits Brexit has done “deep damage to our economy” and promises to be “more ambitious” in deepening ties with Europe.
But he may have run out of political time for a grand shift.
