ECB set to postpone rate increase

The president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Jean-Claude Trichet, made it clear last week that the ECB will continue to take a tough stance on inflation and will do "what is necessary to ensure price stability".

However, borrowers will be glad to know that the ECB governing council is expected to hold off on an interest rate rise when it meets on Thursday, although they should prepare to feel the pinch in June when rates are likely to rise 4 per cent.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Atlantic, data out this week on the US mortgage market will no doubt be closely scrutinised, as markets look for indications as to whether recent difficulties in the subprime sector have spread to the general mortgages market.

Monday

Public holiday in Europe. Irish, UK, US and Eurozone markets closed.

INDICATORS:German wholesale prices (Mar); Japanese monetary policy meeting and economic watchers' poll (Mar).

OTHERS:Small Firms' Association to release National Absenteeism Report 2006; International Monetary Fund managing director Rodrigo Rato speaks on global economy and policy changes at the Peterson Institute for International Economics seminar (Washington).

Tuesday

RESULTS:Alcoa, Axa, Cast, Jelmoli Holding, YouGov (H1)

INDICATORS:US weekly retail sales (to April 7), IBD consumer confidence (April) and ABC/Washington Post consumer confidence (w/e Apr 8); UK retail consortium (Mar); German external trade (Feb) and current account (Feb); French industrial output (Feb); Japanese monetary policy meeting and Band of Japan monthly report and rate decision.

OTHERS:Minister for Communications, Marine and Natural Resources Noel Dempsey TD will meet representatives of Irish wave energy development company Wavebob and multinational Chevron Technology Ventures to discuss the global opportunities for Irish wave energy technology (Marine Institute, Galway).

Wednesday

RESULTS:AGI Therapeutics, Digigram, Sam, Vilmorin et Compagnie (H1), Jungheinrich, Progress-Werk Oberkirch, Hiestand, Ratia Energie, Accuma Group, Deal Group Media, Servicepower Technologies, St Ives (H1).

INDICATORS:Irish Industrial Production & Turnover (Feb) and manufacturing output (Feb); US federal budget (Mar), minutes of March FOMC meeting, mortgage market index (w/e April 6), refinancing index (w/e April 6), EIA weekly oil market report (w/e April 6), transport services index (Feb); UK BRC retail sales monitor (Mar) and leading indicator (Feb); French external trade (Feb); Canadian housing starts (Mar); Japanese money supply (Mar), current account (Feb), trade surplus (Feb), bank lending (Mar), bankruptcies (Mar), consumer confidence index (Mar) and Machinery Orders (Feb).

OTHERS:Irish Human Rights Commission to launch report The Self Employed and the Old Age Contributory Pension; Norges Bank governor Svein Gjedrem speech (Bergen, Norway); US Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia president Charles Plosser gives lecture "Credibility and Commitment" (University of Delaware); International Monetary Fund issues its latest semi-annual Global Financial Stability/World Economic Outlook report (Washington); American Enterprise Institute hosts "The Federal Home Loan Banks and State Local Revenue Bonds" conference (Washington); Federal Reserves Bank of Richmond president Jeffrey Lacker speech (North Carolina).

Thursday

RESULTS:JJB Sport, SMG, Krispy Creme Doughnut, Tessi, D Logistics, Geratherm Medical, Leifheit, Edipresse, Kardex, Orell Fuessli, Autologic, Prezzo, SABMiller, Sports Cafe Holdings.

MEETINGS:Irish Continental Group EGM (Berkeley Court); ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by interest rate announcement.

INDICATORS:Euroland national accounts - GDP (Q4, 2006) and industrial output (Feb) and ECB interest rates figures (quarter to the end of March); Irish CPI (Mar) and HICP (Mar); US jobless claims (to April 7) and money supply (w/e April 2), import and export prices (Mar), MC spend pulse (Mar) and ICSC monthly chain store sales (Mar); UK external trade (Feb), RICS house price balance (Mar) and BCC Quarterly Economic Survey (Q1); Italian industrial output (Feb);Japanese corporate goods pricing index (Mar) and consumer confidence(Mar)

OTHERS:Minister for Communications, Marine and Natural Resources Noel Dempsey TD (left) launches Ireland's first Bio-Diesel production facility developed by Green Biofuels Ireland (Marshmeadows Facility, Co Wexford); Bill O'Reilly (Fox News) to speak at Trinity's Philosophical Society; Norges Bank governor Svein Gjedrem speech (Bodo, Norway); International Energy Agency (IEA) to publish its monthly oil market report (Paris); Federal Reserves Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow speech on US economic outlook (Illinois).

Friday

RESULTS:General Electric, Infosys Technologies, Shaw Communications; Setforgel, Ulric de Varens, Xilam Animation (H1), Unilog Integrata Training, Hugli Holding MEETINGS: Centre for Economic and Policy Research discussion - "Global Imbalances, Power Shifts and the Future of Multilateratlism" with Joseph Stiglitz (above) and Jose Antonio Ocampo (Washington).

INDICATORS:Euroland industrial production (Feb); Irish live Register (Mar) and unemployment rate (Mar); US external trade (Feb), producer prices (Mar), IEA and University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (Apr - prelim); French CPI (Mar); Italian CPI (Mar) and Spanish CPI (Mar); Canadian trade balance (Mar).

OTHERS:Servaas Deroose, director, Macroeconomy, European Commission's Directorate-General, Economic and Financial Affairs to speak on "The Euro Area: Recovery and Reform?" (Washington)