Business Week: Brexit fallout dominates a turbulent week

Concerns over currency rates as Dublin and London assess damage

It was the week when the world of business and finance not so much looked to pick up the pieces following Britain’s vote to leave the EU, but to get down on hands and knees to see what could be salvaged.

Having anticipated that Britons would vote to remain, the markets were caught cold by the result of the referendum and, initially at least, there was carnage. Sterling tumbled to a fresh 31-year low against the dollar as investors bet Britain’s vote would trigger a Bank of England rate cut. Billions of pounds were wiped off the value of stocks, with financial shares taking the worse of it, though by Friday significant ground had been made back.

Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said the economy would have to face up to "an adjustment". What that means is higher taxes and less spending to stabilise the public finances. Ratings agency Standard & Poor's hit the UK with a two-notch downgrade to its credit rating.

It wasn’t all bad news. British engineering company Rolls-Royce confirmed its commitment to the UK as it said it was comfortable with its outlook for the year.

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"The world keeps turning," was the musing of Dixons Carphone finance chief Humphrey Singer. Britain's biggest consumer electrical and mobile phone retailer was one of the worst-hit stocks following the vote, given its exposure to big ticket electrical items and potential vulnerability to any fall-off in demand.

But Singer was able to report a rise in sales in the days that followed the result, and said he was confident the company, which trades as Carphone Warehouse, Currys and PC World in Britain and Ireland, will continue to grow its market share even in the event of an economic downturn.

Britons will be shuddering at the thought of another financial crisis fresh of the heels of the last, but analyst Davy published research on Thursday outlining the view that uncertainty off the back of the result will push the British economy into recession by the turn of the year.

Profits alert

The decision to quit the EU is also set to trigger profit alerts from Irish companies, with analysts having already moved to downgrade stock ratings and earnings forecasts. Growth forecasts for the economy are also being cut. Brexit wiped almost €450 million off the fortunes of business figures behind four Irish Stock Exchange top-20 companies by the time the market closed on Monday.

Eugene Murtagh, founder and chairman of Kingspan, saw the value of his 16.6 per cent holding in the Cavan-based insulation boards-making giant plunge by €201 million as its market value dropped 27 per cent.

Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary saw the value of his 3.8 per cent stake in the low-cost carrier fall €158 million to €499 million from €657 million. His company was worth €13.12 billion at close of business on Monday from a high of €17.34 billion on June 23rd. Ryanair said it was very unlikely to deploy new planes on UK routes next year and will focus on the EU instead. The airline flies 40 million of its 100 million-plus passengers a year to and from the UK and has its largest hub at London's Stansted Airport.

Fitch Ratings ruled out any " immediate implications" for Ireland's sovereign rating in the near term, but a medium-term rating impact is possible "if the economic dislocation of Brexit were to prove severe".

Broker Cantor Fitzgerald said Irish economic growth could fall to 2.4 per cent next year as it sharply cut its expectations for the economy in the wake of Brexit. It cut its 2016 GDP growth estimate to 3.8 per cent – from 4.4 per cent previously – but its forecast for 2017 is now the lowest among major analysts.

Minister for Finance Michael Noonan said at the closing session of the National Economic Dialogue that the vote could lead to economic growth in Ireland next year being 0.5 per cent less than previously forecast. Manoeuverability in the October Budget is unlikely to change, he added, but there will be implications from about 2018 on.

Ireland’s opportunity

There has been talk that Britain's difficulty could be Ireland's opportunity. The chief executive of IDA Ireland Martin Shanahan said there could be some upside potential for the Republic but it is too early to size it up and that in the long term it would depend on Britain's future access to single European market.

Even senior UK policy-makers conceded that Dublin is well placed to lure thousands of London’s top financial services jobs across the Irish Sea. The City of London Corporation’s head of policy and resources Mark Boleat said the Republic was an “attractive” option for major institutions reconsidering their London staff in the wake of Brexit.

Vodafone has signalled that it might consider moving its HQ out of the UK given uncertainty about how many of the "positive attributes" of being in the EU will remain once Britain has left the bloc.

The London-based financial watchdog European Banking Authority, could also relocate to Dublin. MEP Brian Hayes called for the move on Wednesday, following comments made by the head that it would have to relocate if there was a vote to leave in the UK. Separately, M&G Investments, the fund management arm of insurer Prudential, is to build a funds business in Dublin amid fears Brexit will dent its ability to attract investors given its London base.

Currency rates

The chief concern for the Republic lies in currency rates and the extended implications for trade and tourism. Enterprise Ireland will seek to reduce its clients' reliance on the UK markets, cutting the proportion of their exports that go to Britain by about seven percentage points over the next five years.

Irish food and drink exports to the UK accounted for 41 per cent of total exports in 2015, valued at €4.4 billion. According to a survey by risk management firm Aon, 58 per cent of firms in the Irish food sector identified the recent slide in sterling as a major challenge to competitiveness.

Bord Bia meanwhile conducted a survey in the immediate aftermath of the result, and found nearly a third of companies in the sector said they would search out new markets.

The remaining two thirds said they would opt for alternative solutions, focusing on a reduction in costs and recovering losses from higher prices.

Some 40 per cent of Irish food and drink exporters expect their sales to decline, while most cited exchange rate volatility as a key risk.

Murdoch rolls in

It wasn't all Brexit this week. News Corp announced plans to buy Belfast's Wireless Group in a £220 million (€263m) deal. Rupert Murdoch's company will pay 315 pence a share for the radio-focused Wireless.

The acquisition will see the group's biggest asset, London-based radio station TalkSport, and seven Irish radio stations come under the control of News Corp (UK and Ireland), which also owns the Sun, the Times and the Sunday Times newspapers, as well as the Dublin-based news agency Storyful.

Volkswagen compensation

Volkswagen are to offer “substantial compensation” to US owners of VW cars affected by the diesel emissions scandal, under a $15.3 billion (€13.9 billion) settlement. Legal action has begun in the Republic over the scandal.

Liam Moloney, a solicitor acting for a number of Irish car owners affected, said the company should “enter into fair settlement talks to properly compensate consumers who are at a loss as a result of their actions”.