Boeing's "super jumbo" concept grounded by lack of interest

FEW have enjoyed the debate about the future of the "super jumbo" as much as the soft ware engineers and artists who have created pictures of what these huge aircraft might look like.

Their images of double decker aircraft carrying 550 people thousands of feet above the ocean, or dwarfing red London buses on the ground, only helped, however, to raise doubts about the viability of these projects.

How were all these passengers going to get on and off these aircraft in anything under an hour? How could they be evacuated in an emergency? How would the aircraft fit into crowded airports? And, most important, how many airlines really wanted "super jumbos"?

It was the last question which prompted Boeing to announce that it was scrapping its plans to build a 550 seat version of its Boeing 747-400.

Boeing said it had spoken to many airlines about the "super jumbos". Only British Airways and Singapore Airlines were prepared to say publicly that they wanted a 550 seater. But, as Boeing pointed out yesterday, even these two enthusiasts had failed to place any orders.

Mr John Hayhurst, general manager of the 550 seat project at Boeing, said that after months of talking to airlines, he realised it was time to call it a day. "We reached the conclusion that the market wasn't as ready as we thought six to 12 months ago."

Airbus Industrie, the European manufacturing consortium, vowed yesterday to press on with its project to build a 550 seater, provisionally called the A3XX. But now this programme must also be in doubt.

Although Airbus is looking for investors in the A3XX in Asia and North America, it will ask European governments to provide a proportion of the development costs. Governments and European taxpayers will ask if the market is not big enough for Boeing to make a success of the "super jumbo", why should Airbus find it any different?

Airbus responds that it was always more realistic about the cost of developing a 550 seater, which it puts at about $8 billion. Boeing began by believing that its aircraft, could be developed more cheaply because its 550 seater would be based on the proven technology of the 747.

Some analysts calculated that Boeing could develop its new aircraft for as little as $2 billion. The US company said last year the cost would probably be closer to $5 billion. By the beginning of this year, the projected figure had crept up to $7 billion.

Mr Hayhurst says this was because the airlines demanded newer features than those available on the 747. For example, they wanted fly by wire technology, which is available on the 777, Boeing's new twin engined aircraft, but not on the 747. Fly by wire means that wing and tail surfaces are controlled electronically rather than mechanically also said the market was not big enough to accommodate the "super jumbo". Mr Hayhurst says that over the past 10 years, the transatlantic aviation market has been fragmenting. Airlines are using a greater number of airports on both sides of the Atlantic rather than flying between giant hubs.

While airlines have shown a desire to use medium to large aircraft such as the 777, which carries up to 400 people, on transatlantic flights, they have shown little desire to fly anything much bigger. He said he expected this trend to be repeated as air traffic from Asia to Europe and North America grew.

The US company estimated that there was a demand for fewer than 500 "super jumbos" between now and 2014. Airbus predicted that 1,400 could be sold.

Airbus said that it still believed its forecast would prove correct. It said it had decided to press ahead with the A3XX because its position was different to Boeing's. Boeing already had a 400 seat aircraft, the 747. Airbus had nothing comparable - its largest aircraft, the A330, has 330 seats.

The European consortium is also studying a 375 seat version of its four engined A340, which at present carries 265 passengers. The enlarged version of the A340 would compete with smaller models of the Boeing 747.