Every additional dollar spent at the fuel pump equates to a 10-point fall in the president’s approval rating. That’s a rule of thumb that appears to be playing out for US president Donald Trump.
His approval rating plumbed new depths last month, hitting 36 per cent. At the same time, the average price of a gallon of petrol in the US averaged $4.20, up from $3 in 2025.
Car ownership is a necessity in many parts of the US, a vast country with patchy public transport. That’s why fuel costs are such a barometer of political performance.
And why Trump and his Republican Party look set for a shellacking in today’s midterm elections.
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Losing control of the House of Representatives appears to be a certainty. The question is whether the Democrats can also win the Senate.
This could hobble Trump’s presidency as Democrats would be in a position to block cabinet and judicial appointments while having subpoena powers to investigate the administration.
Even with the tariffs, US inflation would probably have slowed again this year if Trump hadn’t gone to war with Iran, triggering a spike in oil prices.
Trump’s own goal in the Middle East looks increasingly likely to define his presidency. It has not just driven up fuel prices but also the cost of diesel, which is needed to transport goods.
And reports suggest the US may be considering another strike on Iran, a move that is certain to fan another upward shift in energy prices.
The full ramifications of Trump’s war can be seen through the prism of US producer price inflation, which has surged above 6 per cent. This will translate into further consumer price inflation in the coming months.
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How Trump reacts to a possible mauling in the midterms is difficult to forecast. Some commentators believe he will defy the traditional lame duck status it normally bestows on the White House incumbent because he’s Donald Trump and because he’s on the way out anyway.
But the era of executive orders and bypassing Congress might soon be at an end.
The top Democrat on the House oversight committee, Robert Garcia of California, says he will prioritise the examination of Trump’s family businesses, the Epstein files, immigration enforcement, corporate profiteering, and how US health secretary Robert Kennedy jnr has handled vaccines.
His final two years in office could yet prove to be explosive.
