Ryanair has cut its 2027 traffic target to 214 million passengers from 216 million, citing high unhedged oil prices, while warning sustained fuel costs could push up short-haul airfares.
In light of high unhedged oil prices and with jet fuel currently trading at $140 a barrel, “it is sensible to strategically reduce the group’s exposure to unhedged jet fuel during the unprofitable winter schedule (from November to March),” the carrier said.
“Ryanair’s FY (full year) traffic target is therefore cut from 216 million to 214 million passengers to reduce our exposure to unhedged oil this winter,” it said.
The airline said it expected this cut to reduce its winter 2026 losses by €70 million to €100 million.
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It also warned that if high oil prices continued through to summer 2027, short-haul airfares would “increase materially” to reflect higher oil prices “as some less well-hedged competitors will struggle to maintain capacity or even survive this winter season”.
Amid renewed hostilities between the US and Iran, oil prices topped $97 a barrel at one point on Wednesday, marking their highest intraday level since early June.
Ryanair has hedged approximately 80 per cent of the current financial year’s jet fuel needs in advance at $67 a barrel, but has to pay inflated prices for the remaining 20 per cent while the US-Iran war continues.
Nonetheless, the airline still expects to make a profit this year – but below last year’s record level.
Ryanair, like other airlines, has cut fares to boost seat bookings and counter consumer caution about travel after the outbreak of the war.
The airline said it was on track to increase summer passenger numbers – between April and October – by more than 5 per cent, from 138 million to 145 million. Fares are drifting “modestly down” between August and September compared with last year, it said.
On Tuesday the company also produced August passenger numbers, showing it carried 22.2 million passengers during the month – up 6 per cent on the same month last year.
It said it expected traffic from November to March to be broadly flat.
Separate Central Statistics Office (CSO) data indicated that more than 288,000 additional passengers used Irish airports in the second quarter of 2026.
The agency said 12.3 million passengers passed through the five main Irish airports, compared with 12 million passengers in the same period in 2025 and 11.2 million in the second quarter of 2024.
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More than 82,000 flights were handled by the State’s five main airports between April and June, with Dublin handling 82 per cent of all flights (68,104), while Cork handled 8 per cent of them (6,548).
The number of flights to and from Irish airports in the first half of 2026 increased by 8,122 to 147,260 when compared with the same period in 2025.
The London-Heathrow, Amsterdam-Schiphol, and Manchester routes were the most popular for passengers travelling through Dublin Airport, the CSO said.
The top route for Cork and Shannon was London-Heathrow, while it was London-Luton for Knock, and Dublin for Kerry.
