Many economic experts have contended that despite the damage he can inflict on the State’s economy, every so often Donald Trump is also capable of doing things that work to Ireland’s benefit.
The latest opportunity for Ireland could well be his plan to impose massive fees on the H-1B visas that the big American tech companies use to bring foreign workers to the United States.
Up to 85,000 of them are issued each year – and until recently the cost of applying ranged between $1,700 and $4,500.
Last weekend Trump’s administration slapped $100,000 on each application – a cost that will be borne by the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta. That is, if they wish to bring in highly qualified engineers and computer programmers.
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While the US president is a recent convert to such a policy (in the past he claims to have used the visa scheme to hire staff) – stalwarts of the US political scene such as Bernie Sanders have long argued the visa is used to undercut US workers and bring in cheaper labour.
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In recent years, most of the visas have been granted to specialised workers from India and, to a lesser degree, China. Around 730,000 people are thought to currently hold one. Along with their families, they account for approximately 1.3 million people living in the US.
Advocates of the new fee say it will ensure such visas are only extended to the most needed workers.
The news sparked panic among workers and tech bosses alike.
While the administration tried to ease concerns by saying the fee would only apply to new applicants, staff were told by their companies not to leave the country just in case. Footage on social media purported to show a flight from San Francisco to Dubai being delayed as it allowed worried passengers to disembark moments before it was due to take off.
The direct impact on Irish workers is likely to be small – only 213 of the visas were granted to Irish people last year – but what is more relevant to Ireland is what this says about the direction Trump is taking the US economy.
Tech investors have warned that while the big names will be able to absorb some of the pain and find workarounds, US tech start-ups will be “kneecapped” by the change. This at a time when the US is engaged in an artificial intelligence arms race with the rest of the world.
Janice Flynn is a Chicago-born lawyer who has been working in immigration and visas for more than 20 years. She says that not only have fees increased, but the rules governing the visa lottery have been tightened as well.
Flynn notes that the H1-B has been a gateway for many people towards an eventual green card – and the chance to make a permanent life for themselves in the United States.
“If a worker wants to stay, they can have the visa for a maximum of six years, in three-year increments. And then, if the employer sponsors them for a green card before the end of the fifth year, it is extended until the green-card process is complete. That goes through quite a number of stages,” she says.
“If someone is living and working in the US they are paying taxes, they are making a contribution to society. Elon Musk had a H-1B visa straight out of university – as did many other talented people. Would Elon Musk have stayed in the United States if this had been in place? I don’t know.”
Flynn cites the boss of Tesla, SpaceX and X – formerly Twitter – as a recipient of a H-1B – but Musk is on a long list of big players in the US tech scene who has benefited from one. Google boss Sundar Pichai, Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella, Lip-Bu Tan of Intel and Jensen Huang of Nvidia are among a cast of hundreds of senior figures who have all started their journey on a H-1B.
Musk has railed against the idea that the visas be scrapped or curtailed. Late last year he vowed to do everything in his power to prevent such a thing from happening – vowing to “go to war” on the issue.
“The reason I’m in America along with so many critical people who built SpaceX, Tesla and hundreds of other companies that made America strong is because of H-1B,” he said.
Clearly Musk has lost the “war” to those within the Maga camp who have long sought to close off this avenue for foreign workers.
Among those who was granted a H-1B, before making his way in Silicon Valley, is Limerick man John Hartnett. He now resides in Los Gatos and heads up SVG Ventures.
“It was the very same visa my wife and I came to the US on over 20 years ago, and since then we’ve built our lives here and become citizens. So this is not just a policy debate for me – it’s personal,” he says.
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“Tech companies will, by necessity, place more emphasis on US citizens and green-card holders. That’s clearly the intended focus of the new policy but it will inevitably tighten the talent pipeline for specialised skills.”
If Trump is serious about the clampdown – a move that is certain to have annoyed his “tech-bro” backers in Silicon Valley – then consideration in future might be given to locating foreign workers in Europe – and, more specifically, Ireland. Such an outcome could mean more workers attached to the European headquarters of some of Ireland’s biggest employers. More workers would mean more income tax and more money in the public purse.
Hartnett believes Ireland, Canada and Britain stand to benefit. He describes it as a potentially once-in-a-generation opportunity.
“Ireland has a real chance here – not only to expand existing R&D centres but to position itself as a strategic European innovation hub. With its strong ties to US multinationals, deep talent base and English-speaking advantage, Ireland could see an uptick in both company investment and high-skilled immigration flows.
“The opportunity is for Ireland not just to host operations, but to strengthen its role in the global talent ecosystem.”
Flynn agrees that this is a possibility. However, she says Dublin could also be used by tech companies to further avail of the L1 visa system. The L1 enables companies to send well-paid workers to the USa for a period of up to seven years.
This would be a potential way to circumvent the restrictions now being placed on the H-1B.
“The L1 visa option means if someone has been working for a company in Ireland for a year – they can transfer them within that company to a location in the US,” she says.
This raises the prospect of Dublin being used as a temporary staging post for individuals who are particularly in demand in the US; a year spent working in the office of an American multinational followed by a transfer to the US under the terms of the L1.
Whether companies would be prepared to accommodate someone in Dublin for a year – as opposed to stumping up the $100,000 – is an open question.
Mike Beary was Ireland country manager for Amazon Web Services for six years before stepping away in 2023. During that time the Amazon workforce here grew from 2,000 to over 6,500.
Beary believes the changes announced by Trump’s administration are ideologically driven – and have less to do with economic reasoning or a coherent immigration strategy. He suggests that it may be as simple as the US president wanting to give the Indian government a poke in the eye.
However, he says it appears to be part of a wider trend that Ireland needs to pay attention to.
“It is part of a broader effort to shut down all forms of immigration into the US – and it is going to have long-term implications for the innovation and creativity of US companies,” he says.
The focus, says Beary, shouldn’t be on “redirecting” people who would otherwise have moved from India and China to the US – but in proving to those highly trained foreign workers that Ireland can offer them a life beyond the workplace.
“Part of why Amazon is such a big user of the H-1B is that they are adding vital critical skills to existing clusters of engineers and innovators,” says Beary. “They like the idea of having people in one place – collaborating with one another – that sense of critical mass.
“It’s about saying in Ireland that we too can create those clusters and be a global centre for things like cloud computing or AI implementation. We have to show we can become a centre that is concentrated – people can come here and build their career and work with other talented, interesting people.
“At the moment Ireland is so constrained from an infrastructure perspective – it is not a question about just being able to pay these people enough so that they want to come here – it is, do you want to make a life here – afford a house – get your children in school?”
Beary, who is chairman of the governing authority of University College Dublin, says he has seen some small signs of a change in culture here. The university has added 50 incremental new lecturers to its campus this year, he says, and saw a huge number of applications from the US and the UK.
“Ireland is becoming a place where people believe they can have a good academic career – and that is a precursor to an innovative economy.”
As with many shock announcements from the White House, the situation is still fluid. In a note to members during the week, the American Immigration Lawyers Association said it was still seeking clarity on a range of questions, including whether visas would be issued for renewal and changes of employer. Economists too are asking questions. Several have suggested they may have to revise downwards their forecasts for US growth this year if such measures continue to pile up.
One of them is Atakan Bakiskan, an economist at the investment bank Berenberg. In a recent note he labelled the move as part of Trump’s “anti-growth” agenda.
“By making it very expensive for companies to attract foreign talent, and by forcing some international students to leave the country after graduation, the brain drain will weigh heavily on productivity,” said Bakiskan.
The effects of Trump’s efforts may also lead to a greater retention of talent in places such as India. Indian politicians have long worried about a brain drain – and see this as a chance to build on their own technology sector. Like Ireland, however, the debate there is dominated by concerns that the country simply doesn’t have the infrastructure to do so.
According to Beary, Ireland hasn’t missed the opportunity to reposition itself just yet. With the US seemingly cutting itself off from the outside world for the foreseeable future, Ireland “will need a story to sell over the next two to three years”.
