“Beef or salmon?” – the most classic of Irish culinary choices.
For decades it has been a critical decision for many a diner here, particularly at family occasions or corporate events. However, if anecdotal evidence is to be believed, it is a choice that fewer and fewer are getting to consider.
Amid rising prices – and increased sensitivity to costs among customers – salmon has been dropped from many menus.
According to the director of the Irish Hotels Federation’s (IHF), lamb was the first victim of food inflation.
READ MORE
[ Grocery prices up almost 6%, new figures suggestOpens in new window ]
Paul Gallagher says it has already disappeared from many menus around the State due to the high price that restaurants and hotels were having to pass on to customers. Many diners, he says, are not prepared to stomach the additional cost.
And salmon reportedly is heading the same way.
“You don’t really see lamb on Irish menus any more – and salmon has certainly become very scarce,” says Gallagher, who managed Buswell’s Hotel for many years before moving into his new role earlier this year.
In attempting to explain why this is happening, Gallagher cites figures gathered by his own organisation. IHF members report that the wholesale price of salmon, which they pay their suppliers, has risen by 25 per cent.
Food inflation has been well tracked in the media over the past few years – and salmon is far from alone in stretching budgets. Gallagher lists off a range of double-digit increases over the past year encompassing coffee, butter, cocoa and chicken.
The most remarkable increase seen this year, he says, is in the cost of turkey – which has risen by 46 per cent. This can be attributed in part to bird flu and grain prices. Office parties could be in for a rude awakening come Christmas.
The higher costs mean that people are cutting back, Gallagher says, and drifting towards cheaper options and being generally more careful on their nights out. This is what is behind the disappearance of pricier options such as salmon off many menus.
“You’ll see a lot of people will now choose to have just one dish when eating out – just opting for the main course and leaving out a starter or a dessert,” he says. “Now, maybe that has to do with healthier eating habits but clearly pricing is also playing a part.”
Beef – the other old menu staple – will be harder to shift but it, too, is pushing at the edges of affordability.
[ Irish food prices second most expensive in EuropeOpens in new window ]
According to Gallagher, the cost of strip loin beef has increased by 16 per cent since January alone.
“You look at a steak and it might be priced at €40 in some cases. Add vegetables and a sauce and all of a sudden you’re looking at €50. Steak has become like buying a decent bottle of wine – all right once in a while but not something you are going to buy very often.”
Gallagher puts the increase in beef prices down to rising demand from Britain – which has become increasingly reliant on Irish cattle.
“July’s CSO (Central Statistics Office) figures show an over 40 per cent increase in cattle prices in the past year – this inevitably works its way on to menu prices”, he says.
“More needs to be done to control food input costs. Otherwise, menus will become increasingly homogenised – limited to a beef burger, a chicken burger, fish and chips, an Irish stew, a vegetarian choice and maybe one pasta dish. This is not where we want to end up.”
Michael Vaughan of the Lodge Hotel in Lahinch, Co Clare, agrees that there is huge substitution of dishes going on across the State.
“A lot of restaurants have felt that keeping premium products on their menu will make it seem ridiculously priced. Many are substituting steaks with featherblade of beef. But it’s a different experience: it has to be slow-cooked and you won’t get it medium rare.
“Fillet steak is becoming a rarity around the country. In my hotel, for instance, I do still have a fillet steak on the menu but I’m buying Angus premium choice. It was priced at €38 about three years ago; now it’s at €50.”
Vaughan says another loss to many menus is the Dublin Bay prawn.
Now priced at more than €60 a kilo, it is competing with much cheaper rivals such as the North Atlantic and Vietnamese king prawn. While these two imports are more affordable, foodies attest to the difference in quality.
According to the Clare hotelier, this sort of price differential is reflected right across seafood.
The other big change is in eating habits, says Vaughan. He too notes the trend of ordering perhaps one or two courses – as opposed to three.
However, he also wonders whether the spending by American visitors is on the decline for very different reasons.
“So many Americans now are on Ozempic [a diabetes treatment that is associated with weight loss]; it dulls the cravings for food and drink.”
He says this trend towards healthier living is also seen in the lucrative area of alcohol sales.
“An area of profit for restaurants was always wine and drinks but that market has plummeted.
“That puts increasing pressure on the price of the food. You would have traditionally covered your costs and made a small margin through alcohol. But it’s common now for people not to have any alcohol with their meal.
“The model we have relied on for so many years is completely broken.”
Hoteliers have an advantage over restaurateurs. The likes of the Lodge in Lahinch can continue to offer fine dining as part of its overall package – making up any losses on food through room prices. The hotel restaurant becomes a loss leader, part of the overall proposition that guests can avail of if they so wish.
Independent operators on the so-called “high street” have no such luxury.
They report having to continually revise their menus as prices have risen. They have to weigh up whether they can absorb some of the increases – or whether their customers are willing to pay extra.
What might seem very basic ingredients are now minutely scrutinised for cost.
For example, the simple chocolate chip has been hit by the dramatically rising price of cocoa. Pastry chefs, in some cases, are reportedly having to consider paring back on the little nuggets when making some of the most basic of desserts.
As owner and operator of Hugo’s restaurant on Dublin’s Merrion Row, Gina Murphy has been a vocal advocate for the industry. Business remains good, she says, but the struggle to produce a quality range of options at prices people are prepared to pay has intensified.
“The big one for us is butter,” says Murphy. “We are having to pay nearly the same wholesale cost as you would in the supermarket – and anyone who knows Hugo’s knows we use a lot of it.
“We have been really good and creative with our dishes. There isn’t an ounce of anything that goes to waste. For example, we would do a short rib of beef – and the offcuts might go towards a ‘beef lollipop’ to serve on the side of a dish.”
She has charted similar increases to the IHF in food costs since 2022 – and says this compounds a big increase in her wage bill after the most recent increase in the minimum wage.
The increase on the hourly rate for junior staff had a knock-on effect right up the staffing chain, she says, amounting to an additional bill of almost €100,000.
“Hugo’s supports Irish businesses – that is our ethos,” she says. “The quality of Irish food far outstrips anything else we could bring in the door – it is our selling point.
“Sean, who rears the chickens, delivers the chickens. Our pork chop is from neighbours of mine down in Mayo. I understand they have had the same increases to factor into their businesses.
“It’s just that everybody has to take the extra charges and pass them on – and unfortunately the consumer is the last person in the line”.
Like Gallagher and Vaughan, she has seen eating habits change.
“People are maybe coming in and just having two courses. They still want the experience, they want to celebrate occasions – Christenings, birthdays. I’m not happy with the prices I have to charge, I’m really not, but I have no choice.”
The restaurant industry is clearly up in arms. It has been campaigning hard for some renewed relief in the upcoming budget. Not for the first time, it has made a reduction in the VAT rate to 9 per cent the central part of its efforts.
It has been estimated that slashing the current rate of 13 per cent to 9 per cent would cost the exchequer more than €670 million and account for almost half of the Government’s proposed tax package. Restaurateurs insist it is essential to save an industry unable to avoid spiralling food and wage costs.
And the rising cost burden of restaurants is not confined to those two areas. One additional cost – noted by Murphy – is the increase in credit card fees. She says Hugo’s have trebled over the past five years as customers have moved en masse away from cash and towards contactless payments.
And all those serving food and drink are aware of the creeping impact that rising prices are having on tourism. Americans still demand Irish lamb and beef, they report. Substituting these with imports would be a difficult decision to make.
Business owners also worry about the global economic picture. Slowing trade – as a result of US tariffs – could well eat into the spending power of American tourists.
Memories of the great recession still linger. Given the small margins these businesses operate on, any big economic shock could have a disastrous impact on an already precarious business model.
