Voters in England go to the polls on Thursday in a slew of local and mayoral elections that are expected to herald a historic breakthrough for Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK party.
Reform will go head-to-head with Labour for local authority dominance in parts of England’s east midlands and north, while the Conservatives seek to fend off a Liberal Democrats surge in the west and south of the country, according to Tory peer and elections guru, Robert Hayward.
“We will see a nation of two halves . . . The dividing line will, in essence, be from the Wash [a big bay that juts in halfway up the east of England] to the Severn [the estuary that carves into England just south of Wales],” according to the peer.
“England has now joined Scotland in multiparty politics.”
Australia’s almost sure-footed Labor PM polling ahead of Liberal rival as election looms
My personality type, he told me, is shared with Mao Zedong, Celine Dion and Satan
Donald Trump’s bombing campaign against Houthis tests his vow to ‘stop wars’
The centrists battling to stop Romania’s far-right surge
The Tories are expected to lose more than half of the estimated 900 seats they are defending, while Reform is in contention to win the most seats overall.
Farage’s anti-immigration party is also in the hunt in two of the six mayoralty votes – former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns could win for Reform in Greater Lincolnshire, while former Olympic boxer Luke Campbell has a narrow poll lead in Hull and East Yorkshire.
Reform is also seen as favourite in a crucial Westminster byelection in Runcorn & Helsby, 40 minutes from Liverpool, north of the city of Chester. The byelection in the Labour stronghold was called after Mike Aymesbury MP was convicted of assaulting a constituent.
Bookies have made Reform’s Sarah Pochin the 1/4 favourite, although officials in Reform and Labour say the race is a toss-up. The seat has been Labour’s since 1983.
Overall, there are 22 council and unitary authority areas in England where votes will take place. About 18 are currently controlled by the Tories.
The last time many of these areas voted, however, was when the Tory party under Boris Johnson was enjoying a bounce in popularity after the Covid vaccine roll-out. A fall from this high watermark would be expected. The sense of disarray around the party after its hammering in the general election last year means the Tories could be in for an even more torrid time.
At the time of the last vote in 2021, the Conservatives under Johnson had also recently conquered tracts of the north of England that were traditionally seen as working class Labour strongholds. It is on this ground that Reform now seeks to make most gains, preventing a Labour retake of those areas.
There are about 1,650 local council seats up for grabs overall. In addition to the Tories’ estimated 900, Labour holds about 280, the Lib Dems about 230 and Independents roughly 140. The Greens and other smaller parties hold the rest.
Hayward estimates that the Conservatives could win as few as 375: “Expect many of these [Tory] losses to be to Reform and, to a lesser extent, the Lib Dems. Many of these seats would, in other cycles, have gone to Labour.”
He predicts Reform could win up to 450 seats, the Lib Dems could gain 80 to win 300, while Labour may tread water. He also predicted a good night for the Greens – the party is expected to benefit from enduring anger in Muslim areas towards Labour over its policies towards Israel and Gaza. That could help it pick up seats in regions such as Lancashire.
A More in Common poll this week for Channel 4 had Reform on 28 per cent support in the areas voting, the Tories on 25 per cent, Labour on 18 per cent and the Lib Dems on 17 per cent.
The Runcorn byelection and the mayoralty results are expected to come overnight into Friday morning, while the local authority results will take longer to emerge.
