Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu faced a dilemma on Sunday night. After Iran launched missiles at northern Israel (in response to Israeli strikes on Beirut’s Dahiyeh quarter) there was an expectation from both the public and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) that Israel had to respond militarily. The Middle East is a tough neighbourhood and restraint is invariably viewed as weakness that encourages renewed aggression from adversaries.
On the other hand, US president Donald Trump briefed Axios and other media outlets ahead of a phone call with Netanyahu on Sunday night. He had said he wanted an end to the tit-for-tat escalation.
“I am going to call Bibi right now and tell him not to retaliate. Each of them had their fun. Israel had its strike and Iran had its strike. We don’t need another one,” Axios quoted him as saying. He also told the Financial Times on Sunday that Netanyahu “won’t have any choice” but to accept a US-negotiated Iran ceasefire, as “I call the shots”.
Netanyahu faced a tough decision. He opted to attack Iran.
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His decision was influenced by the fact the Israeli elections are only a few months away.
He had already called off plans to bomb Beirut last week under pressure from Trump who, according to an Axios leak of an phone call between the two leaders, called Netanyahu “f***ing crazy”. Trump did not dispute the report.
Another capitulation would not win him any votes and would give credence to the opposition description of him as a weak leader who is prepared to sacrifice Israeli security interests to appease the US.
The IDF said on Monday afternoon that it was preparing for “at least several days of fighting” with Iran and was operating in coordination with the United States.
Trump had other ideas. He said in a brief Truth Social post that Israel and Iran “must immediately stop shooting”. It underscored how the US and Israel are clearly not on the same page and showed that Trump’s patience with Netanyahu is running out.
Negotiations with Iran aimed at clinching a memorandum of understanding and a 60-day ceasefire appear to be stalled, but the last thing Trump needs is another Iran-Israel war that threatens to drag the region into a dangerous conflagration.
There is already a widespread body of opinion in the US that believes Netanyahu dragged Trump into an unpopular and costly 100-day war. Many believe he is now trying to torpedo any chance of ending the conflict.
On Monday afternoon, the exchanges between Iran and Israel ended after Trump told them the shooting must stop.
However, they each left the door open to a possible resumption
With the Fifa World Cup only three days away, Trump does not have the luxury of allowing Netanyahu to conduct another war for a few days or weeks to boost his standing in the polls.
He needs it to end and end quickly.
