Why Hizbullah are unlikely to open a second front in Lebanon in Israel-Hamas conflict

Violence along the Lebanese border with Israel has been confined to limited exchanges of fire between Hizbullah fighters and the Israeli military, but it has prompted Ireland, Britain, the US, Australia and Saudi Arabia to order nationals to leave Lebanon and avoid travel to that country.

The US has called on the Lebanese military to deploy along the frontier and it has has dispatched warships to the coast to discourage Iran and its allies from turning the Gaza war into a regional conflict.

Thousands of Lebanese and Israeli civilians have been evacuated from the border area as the death toll in Lebanon rose to 52, including four civilians; and six Palestinian fighters, six Israeli soldiers and one civilian were killed. Troops in the 342-strong Irish contingent serving in south Lebanon as United Nations peacekeepers have had to take cover during exchanges.

Outside the frontier zone, Lebanese continue with daily life as best they can. Protests against the war and Israel have erupted across Lebanon but have been contained by security forces.

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While exchanges have been confined to the frontier zone, concern has risen that events could escalate out of control, plunging Lebanon into another war. Israel has threatened massive retaliation if Hizbullah opens a second front in northern Israel.

The situation in Lebanon is very different from conditions in 2006, when the Iran-backed Lebanese Shia group attacked and killed Israeli troops on patrol along the border. Israel bombed Lebanese infrastructure and dispatched armour and troops into Lebanon with the aim of eliminating Hizbullah. The conflict lasted 34 days. Some 1,300 Lebanese were killed and one million displaced; 165 Israelis were killed and up to 500,000 displaced.

Until 2006, Hizbullah had been popular with Lebanese, as well as across the Arab world, as the movement’s military wing had ended Israel’s 22-year occupation of south Lebanon. The 2006 conflict destroyed Hizbullah’s wide appeal and popularity.

Unless Israel launches a blitz on Lebanon, Hizbullah is unlikely to provoke a fresh Israeli onslaught, and could be obliged to restrain Palestinian groups, which have become involved in cross-border exchanges.

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Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah met in Beirut on Wednesday with senior Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders. Without providing information on action, they announced their aim was to secure “a real victory for the resistance in Gaza and Palestine” and halt Israel’s “treacherous and brutal aggression against our oppressed and steadfast people in Gaza and the West Bank”.

Nasrallah — who often makes policy statements — has not spoken publicly about the Gaza war or the situation along the Lebanon-Israel border. Other Hizbullah officials have warned Israel against mounting a ground offensive in Gaza.

While Hizbullah has built up its arsenal and its fighters have gained military experience by defending the Syrian government from armed opponents, the movement’s political arm has forged a central role in Lebanese politics. Hizbullah would stand to lose weapons, fighters, and power by intervening in the Gaza war. Lebanon would once again sustain heavy human and material losses. Despite Tehran’s vocal condemnation of Israel, Iran could not be expected to urge Hizbullah to sacrifice the gains it has made by attacking Israel.