Sweden may not know until Wednesday the final result of the tightest election in history. With nearly all votes counted on Monday, and rechecks under way, the centre-left opposition camp around the Social Democrats finished three seats ahead of its rivals in the new Riksdag parliament.
The final result could change, however, as remaining ballots and foreign votes are counted, and analysts say difficult coalition talks on forming a new government could drag on until Christmas.
The centre-left remains hopeful of returning to power in Sweden with former prime minister Magdalena Andersson.
“Every vote that has been cast must be counted,” she told supporters in Stockholm. “Regardless of what the final election result turns out to be, there is reason to seek a new spirit of co-operation in Swedish politics.”
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Sounding a similar note of constructive compromise was outgoing prime minister Ulf Kristersson, whose centre-right Moderates appeared to finish in second place on 19.9 per cent.
He declined to concede on Sunday, suggesting new alliances may be required to form a stable government.
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“Which government is going to govern Sweden in the coming years is still an open question,” he said.
“This is a nail-biting situation, really,” said Prof Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson, political scientist at the University of Gothenburg. “This is a completely unlikely result with a majority of one seat for the opposition, but it could go back and forth all evening.”
The other big news of the election was an apparent slump in support for the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD), for the first time in its history, to finish on 17.6 per cent support.
Party officials insisted they would recover when the foreign and postal vote was counted.
After an emotional campaign, Swedish voters swung away from larger to smaller parties, including the left and greens, boosting their confidence – and demands – ahead of what are likely to be difficult coalition talks.
While Andersson’s Social Democrats want greater welfare spending and fairer taxes, her potential Greens and Left parties want higher taxes for top-earners – a move opposed by another potential partner, the Centre Party. Regardless of the final outcome in Sweden, it is far tighter than first predicted, with a first SVT exit poll indicating a comfortable 4.5 point lead for Andersson.
Even before polls closed, SVT election analysts urged caution, recalling a 2022 exit poll survey that indicated a Social Democrat victory, only for the result to flip as the night wore on.
Sunday’s general election was seen by many as a referendum on whether Swedish voters would support or reject a taboo-shattering plan by Kristersson to bring the Sweden Democrats (SD), a party with Nazi roots, into power.
Since 2022, from the opposition benches, the SD has supported Kristersson’s centre-right coalition’s radical correction from liberal to strict migration and asylum policy.
Kristersson promised voters to continue an energetic pushback against gangland violence, too, while doing more to boost the economy and address cost-of-living concerns.
But voters appeared to reject Kristersson’s taboo-shattering idea of welcoming the far-right SD into office. Though Andersson vowed to retain tight migration rules and the pushback against violent crime, she promised additional measures to tackle the roots of that crime.
The Social Democrats’ early lead prompted ABBA legend Benny Andersson to serenade the Social Democratic leader, who lead Sweden for a year until October 2022, with a rewrite of his hit Mamma Mia: “Magdelena, here we go again”.
