The electoral defeat of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power has put like-minded nationalist political forces around Europe on the back foot in advance of a series of key elections next year, including in France and Italy.
Orbán was an elder statesman for Europe’s populist right and his rule was symbolically important internationally as an inspiration for like-minded politicians from the Mediterranean to Washington.
The Hungarian leader sought to leverage these international connections during his campaign, with United States vice-president JD Vance travelling to Hungary to “to help [Orbán] in this campaign cycle” five days before the election – to no avail.
France goes to the polls for a presidential election in 2027, and Hungary’s election result was immediately scrutinised by French media for potential implications for the campaign.
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Orbán’s defeat “shows that nothing is inevitable”, French Europe minister Benjamin Haddad said when asked what it meant for the presidential contest in a television interview. “Populists do not win when the population mobilises, when there is a message of hope,” he said.
He added that voters were turning against isolationist politicians given a “more dangerous world”.
“Eurosceptic voices, far-right populist voices, which are often the mouthpieces of Vladimir Putin or Donald Trump in Europe, are on the decline,” he said, describing the result as “a blow” for the Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament.
During the campaign Orbán released a video showing a who’s who of hard-right European leaders endorsing him and urging Hungarians to return him to power once again after 16 years.
“Thanks to leaders like Viktor, the camp of patriots, defenders of nations and sovereign peoples is achieving ever greater success in Europe,” the French far-right leader Marine Le Pen said in her endorsement.
That narrative of unstoppable momentum has been dashed by the Hungarian result, and the video has become a roll-call of politicians now facing their own electoral contests with greater trepidation.
Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, also featured in Orbán’s endorsement video, faces parliamentary elections in 2027 and no longer looks invulnerable after losing a referendum on judicial reforms in March.
Young voters had been galvanised to vote against the proposed constitutional reforms, which critics had cast as an Orbánesque attempt to impose political control over the judiciary.
“I thank my friend Viktor Orbán for his intense collaboration over the years, and I know that he will continue to serve his nation, even from the opposition,” she wrote on social media after his defeat, offering her congratulations to the victorious Péter Magyar.
Since Orbán’s allies in Poland lost an election in 2023, Slovakian prime minister Robert Fico has been Orbán’s closest ally in Brussels, and the two have worked together to block European Union sanctions on Russia and funding for Ukraine.
The Slovakian press immediately reacted to Orbán’s defeat by questioning whether Fico would continue on this path on his own, and what it means for their own parliamentary elections due by 2027.
“The goals of the government of Slovakia remain unchanged,” Fico said in a statement, saying he believed Slovakia and Hungary should continue to work together to try to re-establish supplies of Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline.
The pipeline runs through Ukraine and was damaged in a Russian attack, and Orbán and Fico had made its repair a condition of supporting EU financing for Ukraine.
Serbian prime minister Aleksandar Vučić, too, faces an election by the end of next year that will be seen as a referendum on whether to continue with a foreign policy of maintaining warm relations with Russia, or return to pursuing membership of the European Union.
He had endorsed Orbán with a video message, saying a victory for his Fidesz party would “mean a lot to all of us”.
