Modern German-Polish relations have had more reboots than the Spider-Man movie franchise, and Monday’s latest effort came as ties hit their lowest ebb in 25 years.
When Polish prime minister Donald Tusk and his cabinet met chancellor Friedrich Merz and his ministers on Monday in Berlin, the 17th round of such consultations since 1991, both sides made standard promises of greater co-operation and a brighter tomorrow.
Such aspirations contrast with the bleak outlook in a long-running bilateral attitude survey, suggesting a key European relationship is sliding into the crisis zone.
Just one in three Poles feel sympathy for the Germans – down from one in two just three years ago and the lowest value since 2008. Meanwhile, one in four Poles expresses an active dislike of the Germans, up 10 points in a decade.
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Survey co-author Bastian Sendhardt blames the negative view of Germans in Poland on a “critical and hostile tone” in the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party which is amplified “further by right-wing media”.
“And it has to be said that the current government under Donald Tusk has occasionally adopted this kind of rhetoric, too,” he said.
Looking in the opposite direction, 42 per cent of Germans have a positive image of Poles while negative views slid slightly to nine per cent.
Polish sociologist Karolina Wigura dismisses such views as based on a “certain ignorance”.
“The Germans don’t see Poland,” she told public news outlet Tagesschau. “You only have to go into any historical museum to see that the Germans see France but not Poland.”
Germany’s dark history in Nazi-occupied Poland continues to cast a shadow over the relationship, with nationalist conservative president Karol Nawrocki determined to pursue a €1.5 trillion compensation claim for war losses, which Germany says has no legal basis.
Four years after departing office, ex-chancellor Angela Merkel remains a provocation for many Poles – and not just for expanding the Nordstream gas pipeline that bypassed Poland and Ukraine.
Her memoirs infuriated Warsaw and Baltic capitals for suggesting they blocked her efforts to pursue a fresh talks format with Vladimir Putin in advance of his invasion of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, German imposition of checks on its borders, in a bid to throttle irregular migration, has infuriated many Poles who commute into the country for work.
Long-standing observers of German-Polish ties express frustration at the relationship’s untapped potential and missed opportunities.
Former Polish ambassador to Berlin Janusz Reiter sees a long-standing vicious circle on the German side: a lack of interest compounding a lack of knowledge of Poland.
On the Polish side, he sees how easily historical doubts are about their western neighbour are exploited for political gain – with any Polish gesture towards Germany denounced by many as treachery by opposition party PiS and the extremist Confederacja party.
“Merz seems to believe if he makes a great gesture, he won’t get anything remarkable in return,” said Reiter. “For Tusk, the political risks of investing in the relationship are considerable.”
Observers suggest ongoing Russian testing of Nato’s eastern wall may push Berlin to step up its engagement with Poland.
Rather than fight over reparations, a row Reiter describes as “nonsense”, he has argued for years that a large multibillion investment programme in Polish military capabilities would be of mutual gain.
“The best way for Germany to show it takes responsibility for history,” said Reiter, “is by investing in its future and in Poland’s security.”
At a joint press conference, Friedrich Merz suggested the time had come for just such a shift.
“We have instructed our ministers to prepare an agreement on defence collaboration,” he said, to be finalised by 2025.
