A year ago, Donald Tusk was accused of scaremongering when he warned Europe was “in a pre-war era”. But Poland’s prime minister knows how quickly peace can evaporate.
He grew up in the Baltic sea resort of Sopot and, as a child, remembered a photograph showing his older family members smiling on the local beach on August 31st, 1939. Hours later, five kilometres away from that beach, Germany invaded Poland and the second World War began.
Just 10 days after the annual remembrance service for that catastrophe, millions of Poles woke up on Wednesday to fears of another.
More than a dozen drones and an unidentified missile had entered Polish airspace. The first drone popped up on Polish radar at 11.30pm on Tuesday. Rather than another stray Russian or Ukrainian rocket — a regular occurrence in the last three years of the war — Polish military analysts realised this was very different.
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The drones came all night. A military graphic shows 415 drones in total launched on Ukraine from Russia and Belarus on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, with several traces leading to Poland. By 6.30am 19 drones had been recorded and five shot down.
Tusk, fearing the worst, had been up all night. Polish president Karol Nawrocki had been informed of the situation at 3am, and he too remained in close contact with senior military officials in Poland’s national security bureau.
At 6.30am, Nawrocki and Tusk met in person in Poland’s operational command centre and agreed to invoke Article Four of the Nato treaty, which calls for urgent consultations when one member’s security is threatened.
By dawn, Poland had become the first Nato member known to have fired shots since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
In a statement, the defence alliance described the incident as “the first time Nato aircraft have engaged potential threats to Allied territory”.
After an emergency cabinet meeting at 8am, an ashen-faced Tusk told Poles in a televised address that there was ”no reason for panic" but that the country must “prepare for various scenarios”.
“The situation is serious; today no one can have any doubts about that,” he added.
Poles in eastern areas were warned not to touch any drone wreckage they found. One reportedly hit and damaged badly a residential home in Wyryki, 15km from the Belarus border and 75km northeast of Lublin.
Local mayor Bernard Błaszczuk told a press conference the family were “scared, but not in shock and just glad that nothing had happened to them”.
Later, on television, Nawrocki described events of the previous hours as “without precedent in Nato’s history, as well as Poland’s recent history”.
The incursion marks an unprecedent baptism of fire for Nawrocki, sworn in as head of state on August 6th.
The 42 year-old conservative historian and former amateur boxer is closely aligned with the opposition national conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party and counts US president Donald Trump among his fans.
Though he has no previous political experience, Poland’s constitution makes Nawrocki, as head of state, head of the country’s armed forces.
[ Poland condemns ‘act of aggression’ after army shoots down Russian dronesOpens in new window ]
After a show of political unity on Wednesday, this division of competences may present a challenge given animosity between Nawrocki’s PiS allies and Tusk.
As the initial shock passed in Poland, messages of support flooded in from Nato leaders in Berlin, Prague, Paris and London.
Later, the White House said Trump is tracking the reports from Poland and there are plans for him to speak to Nawrocki.
On the Truth Social platform, the US president said: “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!”
As many Nato members described the attack as a test of alliance resolve, Tusk insisted “all our [Nato] allies are treating very seriously” what he called “most likely a large-scale provocation” by Moscow.
Russia said on Wednesday there was “no intention to engage any targets on the territory of Poland”, without confirming or denying any of its drones had done so.
As the immediate danger passed, Tusk warned of secondary provocations to come and urged Polish journalists and the wider public to rely solely on official communications for news, predicting Russian hybrid information attacks via social media.
Poland shares borders with Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and, since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, has previously reported incidents of missiles and drones crossing its airspace.
Poland is now looking nervously to Friday, when Russia and Belarus have announced joint military manoeuvres close to the Polish border.
Tusk says the exercises will be “very aggressive” and, unlike previous exercises, simulate “an attack, not defence”.
Belarus has confirmed the exercises will include planning for the use of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons with a focus on the Suwalki Gap. This is a narrow stretch of land of strategic importance near the Russian militarised exclave of Kaliningrad, between Poland and Lithuania.
In response Poland will close road and rail border crossings to Belarus on Thursday.
As the shock of the drone strikes retreats, Ukraine warned on Wednesday that growing Moscow-Minsk maeouvres pose “an immediate threat not only to Ukraine, but also to Poland, the Baltic countries and all of Europe”.
