The European Union is considering opening a direct negotiating channel with Russia as the Kremlin signals that the war in Ukraine is coming to an end. But while they discuss conditions and potential formats, the Europeans have yet to agree on what any talks with Moscow should be about.
Is the Ukraine war really coming to an end?
The Kremlin yesterday repeated Vladimir Putin’s assertion during a press conference on Saturday that the war in Ukraine was “coming to an end”. And as he left the White House to fly to Beijing, Donald Trump said he thought so too.
“The end of the war in Ukraine, I really think it’s getting very close,” he said.
The suggestion is all the more puzzling because the negotiations Trump launched to end the war have paused since the United States president and his all-purpose emissary Steve Witkoff became distracted by efforts to end the war he started against Iran. Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday that Russia had no intention of ending the war and that Ukraine was preparing for more attacks.
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Despite intense fighting, there has been little movement on the battlefield’s front line, with Russia still in control of about 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory. But Ukraine’s use of long-range drones has brought the war to Russian cities, hit energy infrastructure and military installations and persuaded Putin to scale back this year’s Victory Day parade in Moscow last week.
Data from Russia’s state-run VTsIOM polling agency shows Putin’s approval rating falling steadily in recent weeks so that it stood at 65.6 per cent on April 24th, compared with 81 per cent when he launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Putin acknowledged last month that the Russian economy contracted by 1.8 per cent in the first two months of this year amid tax increases and an interest rate of 14.5 per cent.
Putin took the unusual step on April 29th of initiating a phone call with Trump, who has usually been more eager to speak to the Russian president than the other way round. During the 90-minute call, Putin talked about future economic relations between Russia and the US and “the great potential of mutually beneficial co-operation in the economic and energy spheres”, according to the Kremlin.
During his press conference on Saturday, Putin said he was also ready for direct talks with the European Union, suggesting that former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder would make an ideal candidate to represent the Europeans. The Europeans were quick to dismiss the idea of Schroeder, who has worked for a Russian energy company since leaving office and is close to Putin, as a potential negotiator.
But the European Union is moving towards accepting the idea of direct talks with Russia, as proposed by European Council president António Costa. EU foreign ministers were this week divided on the proposal, with Italy and Austria saying it was important for Europe to become active participants in talks to end the war while Sweden and the Baltic States expressed scepticism.
Zelenskiy last week endorsed the idea of EU participation in the negotiations, although Ukraine wants any European channel to be complementary to the US talks rather than an alternative to them. But as Trump continues to demonstrate an indifference and sometimes hostility towards European interests, European leaders could face difficult choices before long.
If the US lifts economic sanctions on Russia as part of a Ukraine deal, will the EU follow suit? And are Europeans content to allow Washington and Moscow to agree a security architecture for the Continent above their heads?
If Europe wants to shape its own postwar destiny, it should prepare for negotiations with Russia that go beyond the immediate questions surrounding Ukraine’s future. These could include the restoration of economic relations and the trade in energy between the EU and Russia as well as security arrangements that anticipate US disengagement from the Continent.
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