The scale of Peter Magyar’s victory over Viktor Orbán gives him a chance to undo much of the damage of the past 16 years. But Brussels should rein in its expectations.
Hope and change in Budapest
Last night’s landslide victory for Magyar’s Tisza party in Hungary was a cause for celebration in most European capitals, and above all in Brussels. The departure of Orbán after 16 years in power removes from the stage, for now, a figure whose success has inspired and nurtured the rise of the new right across Europe.
Hungary’s EU partners hope that Magyar will return his country to the European political mainstream without delay, using his two-thirds majority in parliament to reverse Orbán’s constitutional changes. But they should expect some continuity, particularly in Budapest’s approach to migration, Ukraine’s ambition to join the EU, and relations with China.
The EU has blocked the disbursement of about €18 billion in cohesion and post-Covid recovery funds to Hungary in response to Orbán’s breaches of rule of law principles. These include undermining judicial independence and media pluralism through political control and economic pressure, allowing his cronies to capture parts of the economy and trying to use electoral law to favour his Fidesz party.
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Magyar put the fight against corruption and state capture at the centre of his election campaign, along with promises to boost economic growth, improve public services and increase wages and pensions. Accessing the blocked EU funds is essential to the success of his economic programme, which could in turn determine whether he retains the support of the public and of his ideologically diverse party.
When Donald Tusk became Poland’s prime minister in 2023, the European Commission unblocked €137 billion in frozen funds after he agreed an action plan to undo rule of law breaches by his right-wing predecessors. But Tusk shares power with a conservative president and lacks a super-majority in parliament and the action plan has not yet been fully implemented.
Before Sunday’s election, influential voices in Brussels were calling for a more cautious approach towards Hungary so that the frozen funds would be released in stages and made conditional on compliance with a rule of law plan. Other European actors could be tempted to use the funds as leverage to shift the new Hungarian government’s position on other issues.
Magyar is likely to unblock a €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine that Orbán was vetoing but he is opposed to accelerating Kyiv’s admission as a member state and rejects the migration and asylum pact. And although he has agreed to phase out energy imports from Russia, he says he will do so by 2035, eight years after the EU target of 2027.
Hungary is the biggest recipient of Chinese foreign direct investment in Europe, attracting almost a third of the total so that Chinese companies are the biggest investors in the country after German firms. Chinese battery manufacturers and electric car makers have established big production facilities in Hungary, often with state support.
Although Magyar’s party has complained that Chinese investment has not brought enough benefits to Hungary, he is likely to maintain Budapest’s friendly relations with Beijing.
Other EU member states are also wooing Chinese investment, with Spain’s Pedro Sánchez in Beijing this week for the fourth time in as many years.
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