Donald Trump claims he agreed a ceasefire with Iran because the United States had already achieved its military objectives. But Tehran is setting the terms for negotiations.
Trump’s strategic defeat
The two-week ceasefire agreed by the United States and Iran marks the start of negotiations towards a peace agreement that could yet be derailed by either side or by one of their allies. But statements from both sides point towards a strategic defeat for the US that could transform Iran’s geopolitical position and its role in the Gulf.
Iran and mediator Pakistan said the ceasefire also applied to Israel’s campaign in Lebanon, a development that would reflect its status as a junior partner in the US-led war who must fall into line with Washington - though Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu later said the ceasefire “does not include Lebanon”. Trump said the United States had met and exceeded all its military objectives and was “very far along” with a peace agreement, adding “we received a 10-point proposal from Iran and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate”.
According to Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency, these are the 10 points:
READ MORE
1. US commitment to ensure no further acts of aggression;
2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz;
3. Acceptance of Iran’s nuclear enrichment rights;
4. Lifting of all primary sanctions;
5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions;
6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran;
7. Termination of all International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors resolutions against Iran;
8. Payment of damages to Iran for loss in the war;
9. Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region;
10. Cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon. Israel says this point is not included.
The US launched the war six weeks ago demanding the destruction of Iran’s nuclear programme and its ballistic missile capability and calling for regime change in Tehran. No final agreement will include all of Iran’s 10 proposals but the fact that Trump accepts them as the basis for negotiation is astonishing.
Trump said he had agreed the ceasefire subject to the “complete, immediate and safe” opening of the Strait of Hormuz. But Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, made clear his country’s forces will still regulate shipping through the strait.
“For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via co-ordination with Iran’s armed forces and with due consideration of technical limitations,” he said.
Until a few weeks ago, Iran’s nuclear programme was seen as its central bargaining counter with the western powers and the Strait of Hormuz was perceived chiefly as an instrument of escalation. The threat of closing or mining the strait, with the disruption to global energy and other trade, was a deterrent against attacks from the US, Israel and the Gulf states.
But over the past few weeks, Tehran has not closed the strait or blocked shipping, instead allowing some ships to pass while others were restricted. Those ships that were granted passage had to negotiate it through proxies for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is subject to western sanctions.
The Associated Press reported this morning that Iran and Oman, which is on the other side of the strait, will be allowed to charge ships for passage during the two-week ceasefire. Iran has suggested it will use tolls levied on shipping through the strait to pay for reconstruction of infrastructure damaged during the six-week bombardment.
[ Nothing is over: US enters new realm of instability as ceasefire announcedOpens in new window ]
Iran is unlikely to give up control of the strait and the potential revenue from charging ships to pass through it except as part of a deal that would include a lifting of sanctions. Such an agreement would represent a remarkable outcome to a conflict between an isolated, impoverished state and the richest, most powerful country in the world.
Please let me know what you think and send your comments, thoughts or suggestions for topics you would like to see covered to denis.globalbriefing@irishtimes.com
