The United States and Israel have killed thousands of people in Iran and Lebanon over the past three weeks. The war could also drive tens of millions around the world into acute hunger.
Iran war threatens millions with hunger
Donald Trump’s threat to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure and Tehran’s warning that it will retaliate against equivalent facilities in the Gulf could have catastrophic consequences for the global economy. But the war’s economic impact is already severe, particularly for poorer countries where higher energy costs and a shortage of fertiliser are pushing up food prices and threatening millions with hunger.
The United Nations World Food Programme warned last week that if it persists, the war could push an additional 45 million people into acute hunger. This could see a repeat of what happened after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when global hunger reached a record level as food prices shot up quickly but were slow to come down.
Higher energy costs are one factor driving up food prices, but the war has also seen shipping companies divert vessels from the Suez Canal and the Red Sea to the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing freight costs and extending delivery times to ports in Africa.
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Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is also reducing the world’s supply of fertiliser, about a third of which is either produced in the Gulf or relies on transit routes there.
Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are important exporters of nitrogen fertilisers and of ammonia and sulphuric acid, which are used in the manufacture of fertilisers. Liquefied natural gas, which is also used in fertiliser production, has also become more expensive since Qatar, one of the world’s biggest suppliers, reduced output.
India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, where tens of millions of small farmers rely on subsidised fertiliser to boost crop yields, are especially vulnerable. Increasing subsidies to cover higher prices will put a strain on government finances but if farmers use less fertiliser and produce smaller crop yields, food prices will go up.
In some African countries, lower production of crops such as maize due to fertiliser shortages will mean higher food imports that are likely to drive up inflation. The demonstrations in Egypt during the Arab Spring of 2011 followed a spike in imported wheat prices during a global shortage of the crop.
The Gulf states host more than 20 million migrant workers, mostly from Asia but also from Africa, the majority of whom are in precarious jobs with limited legal protection. The remittances they send home are economically significant and a prolonged conflict could see many of them going home, reducing their families’ income and increasing competition for jobs.
Higher energy and shipping costs are also hampering the work of aid agencies as they try to deliver food and other essential goods to the most vulnerable people in places such as Sudan. Many such agencies are already helping fewer people after Trump’s cuts to USAid and the trend among European governments to divert funds from humanitarian and development aid to military spending.
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