Uganda’s president Yoweri Museveni is seeking a seventh term in office on Thursday and the outcome is all but certain. The bigger question surrounds what happens next.
A grimly familiar election
Thursday’s presidential election in Uganda looks at first sight like a rerun of the last one in 2021 when Museveni, who is now 81, faced off against former pop star Bobi Wine. At 43, Wine still strikes a youthful figure on the campaign trail but like last time, when he won 35 per cent of the vote to Museveni’s 58 per cent, he has little prospect of winning.
Wine’s supporters claimed that the voting was rigged last time and the election was followed by protests that saw security forces kill more than 50 people. Last week, a report from the United Nations Human Rights Commission said Thursday’s election will take place in an atmosphere of widespread repression and intimidation of the opposition.
“Increased crackdowns by security operatives on peaceful assembly and association, coupled with increased state surveillance of digital spaces, continues to instil fear, silence opposition parties, journalists and media practitioners, human rights defenders and other critics, and effectively curtail the exercise of the right to participate in the entirety of the electoral process,” it said.
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About three times the size of Ireland, Uganda is bordered by Kenya to the east, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi to the south, the Democratic Republic of Congo to the west, and South Sudan to the north. It is a strategic ally of the West and an important geopolitical actor in east Africa, with troops deployed in Somalia, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Equatorial Guinea.
Uganda has accepted millions of refugees in recent years, more than any other country in Africa, and it plays an important role in the European Union’s migration policy. Museveni has struck a deal with the Netherlands to accept people whose asylum applications have been rejected by the Dutch authorities, even if their home is far from Uganda.
The country’s population has doubled since 2000 and is now believed to be more than 50 million, putting a strain on infrastructure and making good jobs harder to find. A number of Uganda’s neighbours, including Kenya and Tanzania, have seen Gen Z protests by young people frustrated by a lack of economic opportunity and fed up with leaders who have been in office too long.
Wine is hoping to tap into a similar sentiment in Uganda but Museveni is campaigning on a theme of “Protecting the gains: making a qualitative leap into high middle-income status”. Economic growth remains high and this year will see the start of commercial oil production from fields run by France’s TotalEnergie and China’s CNOOC.
If, as expected, Museveni wins more than 50 per cent of the vote on Thursday he will avoid having to face a second round. But if electoral fraud is blatant, it is likely to spark opposition protests and a harsh security response.
After that, attention will turn to the battle to succeed Museveni and the role of his son, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who has headed the armed forces since 2024. A controversial figure, Muhoozi has become notorious for his bizarre social media posts, including one threatening to behead Wine and another offering 100 cows to marry Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni.
Thursday’s election and the events that follow may prompt some hand-wringing from Brussels but after 40 years in power, Museveni has made himself a key partner for the West in east Africa. And as he deepens relationships with China and the United Arab Emirates, he is signalling that in the event of a falling-out, Uganda has other options.
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