Very few teams can afford to relax

And then there were 18? Two-thirds of the way through the Heineken European Cup pool stages, 48 matches having been played, and only half a dozen teams can mathematically be ruled out. Indeed, apart from the winless Calvisano, Bourgoin, Glasgow, Harlequins, Edinburgh and Cardiff Blues, the other 18 all have at least two wins apiece.

The net result is that all six pools are still - theoretically at any rate - three-way tussles and that, come the penultimate round of pool games, there won't be any completely dead rubbers. Every game will have some meaning for at least one of the sides while Leicester-Biarritz, Bath-Leinster, Llanelli-Northampton, Munster v the Ospreys, Perpignan-Newcastle and Ulster-Gloucester have the makings of classic European Cup confrontations. Granted, Treviso's 47-7 defeat at a patched-up and patchwork Bath rather put their credentials in perspective. Llanelli are perhaps flattered to be in the hunt in Pool Three after back-to-back wins over Glasgow and have still a daunting last-day trip to Toulouse.

Likewise, it's hard to see the Dragons squeezing through while the Ospreys, undoubtedly the pick of the Welsh sides, will have to overturn their home defeat to Munster in Thomond Park. Ultimately, the Welsh may pay the price for a sluggish start which saw only one win over the opening two weekends.

Wasps, too, can surely sense they are merely holding on to their trophy with their fingernails, for it will be a surprise if they can recover from two defeats to Leicester and other results across the pools enable them to go through as one of the best two runners-up.

Realistically, Ulster will do well to top Pool Six, their only viable hope of progressing being as winners of the pool, and even for that to happen they would probably need bonus-point wins at home to Gloucester and away to the Cardiff Blues as well as an unlikely sequence of results in the other games.

Furthermore, they are not the most prolific of try-scorers, only Edinburgh and Harlequins having scored as few. Nevertheless, where there's life there's hope, and there was clearly vibrant life in Ravenhill last Saturday - not least in the legs of Kieran Campbell and David Humphreys.

With hardly a drop of rain (unlike the deluge of round one), last weekend was decorated with some smashing tries and the Ulster half-backs' tries were up there with some of the best scored by Ulster in this competition. As Clive Woodward will be taking four outhalves to New Zealand, the ever spritely Humphreys cannot be entirely ruled out of contention.

Besides, much of Ulster's ambition in this Euro campaign had to be about preserving their pride and their unbeaten Ravenhill record of the previous three seasons. So far, they've at least done that much.

In any event, this still only narrows the field of genuine contenders down to 11 or 12, but, unsurprisingly, Leicester have usurped Toulouse as favourites (in the eyes of Paddy Power anyway) at 3 to 1, with the French outfit at 7 to 2. Next in the betting are the Irish duo of Leinster, at 9 to 2, and Munster at 6 to 1 - with Stade Français at 8 to 1.

You can see where the bookies are coming from. Would any other side in Europe have beaten Wasps back-to-back in the two most physically unremitting and bruising matches to date? Toulouse, on their day, are as well-rounded and complete a package, if not more so, and along with Stade Français, have the resources.

But I am increasingly coming to the view that this season's increase from 20 to 30 championship matches, before play-offs, in their domestic league may wreak too big a toll and that no French side will win it.

Admittedly, Toulouse will probably earn a home quarter-final and Stade might, if they beat Gloucester at Kingsholm (which is why they'll be praying Ulster beat the Cherry and Whites first in Ravenhill). You also have to wonder if David Skrela can be a European Cup-winning outhalf and a miserly return of three wins out of 12 on the road from the French teams (at Calvisano, Glasgow and Cardiff) cannot be ignored either. Their travail on their travels is becoming, if anything, more lamentable.

By comparison, the leading Irish players had a longer pre-season and the provinces are entering a relatively uninterrupted stage of their season, with interpro "derbies" on December 27th and New Year's Day.

Barring injuries to key players, they should, in theory, approach the back-to-back weekends in the European Cup early next month with a better sense of momentum than at any stage of the campaign thus far.

Munster have the pack to go toe-to-toe with anybody, but despite the advent of Christian Cullen and the return of Mike Mullins their back play still lacked the decision-making and precision of the contenders last Saturday. Hence, five of their eight tries have come from the forwards. Still, they are liable to improve.

Leinster may not have the forward power to bully the likes of Leicester, Toulouse and Munster, but if they can remain competitive and obdurate they have the goal-kicking (David Holwell is 23 out of 25 in the competition) and the cutting edge (their backs have scored 17 of their 21 tries) to beat anybody.

At a similar juncture last season, when a poll among most of the Irish rugby journalists was conducted to guess the make-up of the last eight, none of us were exactly correct. Surprise, surprise you may cry, but part of this competition's allure is its utter unpredictability. And, if anything, the picture looks even more blurred this season.

But, if pushed, a possible quarter-final line-up might feature Leinster, Toulouse, Munster, Leicester, Newcastle and Stade Français as pool winners, with Northampton and perhaps Perpignan or Castres slipping through as the best runners-up.

In that line-up, especially as they are well-placed to obtain home quarter-finals, the Irish pair remain genuine contenders.