Tough to defend, but not impossible

Ten years ago Dublin last won the All-Ireland in the middle of football's golden age of democracy. Between 1992-'98 seven different counties in succession took home the Sam Maguire, an unparalleled sequence that extended to all four provinces, and for good measure there were historic provincial championships for Clare, Leitrim and Cavan.

It may be ironic that Dublin, traditionally an elite county, last flourished in a more egalitarian era, but that is part of a wider irony.

The past four years since the All-Ireland qualifier system was introduced have seen great moments of breakthrough and joy for previously unconsidered counties, culminating in the march of Fermanagh to last year's All-Ireland semi-final, but the top prize has become a far more exclusive preserve than it was a decade ago.

No county is dominating and the difficulty of successfully defending the All-Ireland remains, but going into each championship the small pool of likely winners rarely expands beyond three.

It's the same again this year. Kerry carry the perennial burden of holders, Armagh may or may not have the puff to become the third county to knock off the NFL/All-Ireland double and Tyrone have to resolve problems in defence as well as the availability of their Wild Geese contingent.

Nonetheless, for all these reservations it's hard to imagine them striking at once and it will take a major move from a county outside of that group for each of the three favourites to lose out. Of the next in line, the two most obvious contenders are from Connacht.

Mayo were finalists a year ago, whereas Galway are still fielding half a team of All-Ireland medallists. Mayo peaked in the quarter-final defeat of Tyrone and after attracting serious attention in the first half of the summer began to fall away as soon as they reached the semi-finals.

This fade combined with Kerry's bravura slow-burn season, which - for all that it nearly came unstuck in the Munster final - had Jack O'Connor's side in top gear at the end of September, to give Mayo a terrible beating in the All-Ireland.

Lessons learned and all that, but the Connacht champions just don't seem to have a full back. Using David Heaney is akin to the Séamus Moynihan gambit in Kerry in that he is far more effective further out the field. Both of the recent comprehensive Croke Park defeats have had their roots in an inability to cope with aerial power.

Galway have bounced back from a poor championship and patchy league to land a second under-21 All-Ireland in four years. Once again the team will be forward driven, but the configuration from one to eight looks too undeveloped to create the necessary platform. Still, Connacht is open.

In the first year of his latest tenure Billy Morgan discovered the scale of the difficulty facing him in Cork. Losing to Fermanagh might have been a more respectable fate by the end of the championship, but it's safe to say that Morgan hardly took much solace from that by the end of last August.

Should Kerry be suffering from second-season syndrome Cork will have a plan to exploit that - if Limerick haven't done so already. Money would still have to be on Kerry. Their defence is mobile and hard and has Moynihan back, centrefield should similarly benefit from Darragh Ó Sé's return and the attack will regenerate, although maybe more through Bryan Sheehan than Declan Quill, notwithstanding his productive league.

Leinster remains the back marker of the provinces. Of the 12 semi-finalists since the qualifier system was introduced only two have come from the province and it's all of three years since that last happened.

Leinster compensates for lack of quality with meritocracy and all sorts of counties can legitimately aspire to a Leinster title, won most recently by Westmeath and Laois. Of course, the openness also gives hope to the traditional counties.

There is much to be said for the theory that whoever wins the scheduled Dublin-Meath quarter-final will get sufficient bounce to carry them to the title. History certainly supports the view. Since Seán Boylan took over as Meath manager in 1983, he has faced Dublin in 16 championships. In 15 of those years the winners have become Leinster champions.

Hampering Tyrone and Armagh is the Ulster war of attrition to which they have to subject themselves if they want to take the high road into the All-Ireland quarter-finals. Both are experienced enough to travel any way they have to, but the preference would obviously be as provincial champions.

Neither is the title a straightforward choice between the two. Derry have enough done in the past 12 months to be a serious threat in Ulster if not as overall contenders.

It's not easy breaking into the elite and the best that some counties can do this summer is to develop to the point where they can threaten in the next year or two.

Loss of edge and fatigue have been the main factors in undermining attempts to retain the All-Ireland over the past 15 years.

Kerry, though, have unfinished business with Armagh and Tyrone, strength in depth and a more manageable provincial championship. They can be the first back-to-back champions of the decade.