ANALYSIS:Ireland must win in the Southern Hemisphere to climb from ranked fifth on a longer-term basis, writes MATT WILLIAMS

THAT THIN line between success and failure was flipped this season, with Ireland missing out on a Triple Crown when Dan Parks’ late penalty sailed over last Saturday. It highlighted several glaring problems that were easily masked by Ireland’s Grand Slam victory in Cardiff 12 months ago, when Stephen Jones’ late penalty fell marginally short.

Ireland should not be relying on opposing place-kickers to define their season. There is more to this group than that.

The highly-talented national coaching staff need to see the defeat to Scotland as an opportunity for evaluation. If this team are to climb from fifth in the IRB rankings on a longer-term basis, and this is possible, they must win in the Southern Hemisphere.

But this cannot be done unless fundamental changes are made in how possession is used. In a nutshell, counter-attacking and phase-play attack, based on continuity and offloading, must be added to the offensive arsenal.

The largest source of usable ball in Test rugby is gained from teams kicking possession to their opponents. Statistically, Ireland kick away the majority of their possession. In the first four Six Nations matches over 50 per cent of their ball was punted. This approach against France, New Zealand, Australia, South Africa and, in time, England, will result in failure.

The Irish coaches need to empower the back three to take advantage of this source of possession and link with the centres and the backrow. The French regularly deploy Imanol Harinordoquy and Mathieu Bastareaud in the back field.

Likewise, when Ireland steal ball at the breakdown the majority of it is kicked by the halfbacks for a territorial foothold. Tommy Bowe’s excellent first try against England, from Jonathan Sexton’s grubber, came off turnover ball when David Wallace acted as scrumhalf, Stephen Ferris was first receiver and Jamie Heaslip was second receiver. The backrow clearly want to run hard at every chance.

There needs to be a new policy of moving fast ball from turnovers, with the halfbacks encouraged to enact this. There needs to be controlled, attacking phase play. Not Barbarians-style rugby. Last Saturday the decision-making of the Irish in possession was poor. This panicky approach led to the Scottish try.

The other major concern is the concession of penalties, with Ireland second only to Italy in this year’s tournament. Granted, the IRB altered tackle law interpretation mid-tournament, but coughing up five kickable penalties against Scotland after the warnings of the Welsh game proves a decision was not made not to alter their natural approach.

The tackle has two main parts: the front end – which is approach and contact – and the back end – where the tackler brings the ball-carrier to earth and then rolls away or contests for possession. It is at the back end of the tackle that Ireland conceded 12 points against Scotland.

Much of this is up to individual player discipline or built-in technique, but, either way, their current instructions require immediate tailoring.

This leads into further problems with counter-rucking. The decision-making of when to counter-ruck is paramount. The Scottish backrow displayed great awareness and timing in this regard. Certain players can be targeted: basically, the smaller ones. For example, a powerful runner like John Beattie is less likely to be counter-rucked, while Scotland arched over Keith Earls on several occasions.

The scrum remains a concern. The Irish coaching set-up has been rightly lauded, including by this column, but there is no compelling evidence of specialist work being made available to Cian Healy, John Hayes and Tony Buckley on a regular and sustained basis. Gert Smal’s contribution has been immense and he has earned everyone’s respect, but only a former prop truly understands the intricacies of binding, as they were leaking points due to a one-dimensional technique against different types of props. A scrum coach would prepare them for each individual they will face.

The one area in which Ireland repeatedly scored tries, and teams are catching on to this, is off set-piece. I call them zero-tackle tries. That is, they get the ball and score without any phase play – there are six examples in three games against France (David Wallace), England (both of Tommy Bowe’s) and Wales (all three tries). Ireland are the best in the world at this at present.

This is offset by the lack of tries off multiple breakdowns. And then, last weekend, they attempted to work through the phases. They attempted a quantum leap in their style in one game without warning. The result? Errors from rushed and inaccurate passing, just like what happened when they went chasing points in Paris.

To play running rugby requires massive discipline from the ball-carrier because he owns the game. It cannot be switched on and off like a tap.

By switching approach for the last game of the campaign, with the attitude possibly to chase the championship like they did in Rome a few years back, the players needed to be more comfortable with the decision-making process. An incredible performance was promised for about 15 minutes, but ultimately their inaccuracy invited Scotland to play an equally loose game. This suited Andy Robinson’s team.

You either play conservative rugby or you don’t. Ireland must decide which road they want to go down, because they are at a crossroad in their evolvement.

The Super 14, due to the new tackle interpretation, has revved up the pace of the game, so a continued conservative approach will not beat the Tri-Nations teams or France, who have already adapted to the new way.

The place-kicking of Sexton, more recently, and Ronan O’Gara, at the beginning of the season, have been inconsistent, at least, and below acceptable standards. A Test match place-kicker must be registering a minimum 75 per cent success rate for his team to stay competitive.

Of major concern is the mental attitude of the team in the two defining games of the championship. Silverware was on the table in Paris and against Scotland. Mental preparation is a combination of the week’s events. On both occasions players were concerned with outcomes rather than the process. All week we heard about the Triple Crown and a suitable farewell to Croke Park (outcomes), not how Ireland were going to beat Scotland (process).

In the long history of sport this has always led to one thing: failure. In 2003, England went on a summer tour to New Zealand and won. This laid the platform for their successful World Cup campaign. France went to New Zealand last summer and won. This gave them enough belief to pursue the Grand Slam. If Ireland are going to do anything at the next year’s World Cup, winning at least once in June against New Zealand or Australia is essential.

Defeat to Scotland has one positive. It means the problems can be faced down now. Get decent field possession and more discipline with ball-in-hand and Ireland will go to a whole new level with their phase play. It is a very achievable goal.

The time to start is now.