Lions Tour: The strategy of using one 22-man squad in the midweek games and keeping the Test 22 under wraps back in one of their main bases has had to be abandoned, in part because of the weekend's spate of injuries and the suspension of Danny Grewcock, and also because the first Test result has largely scattered the selection process to the wind.
Hence, looking ahead to the likely line-up to face the All Blacks in the Westpac Stadium in Wellington on Saturday, the squad to face Manawatu in Palmerston North today (8.10am Irish) doesn't necessarily show Clive Woodward's hand for the Test.
Even so, there would appear to be a number of indicators. Donncha O'Callaghan, as one of only three available locks (Ben Kay is injured and Brent Cockbain has only just arrived as a late replacement) may well be vying with Simon Shaw to partner Paul O'Connell in the Tests.
Even O'Connell might be under threat but it would seem O'Callaghan has a fighting chance. Nobody has been hitting rucks harder or lower than the Munster secondrow. Against Otago he led the stats for cleanouts with 17, and with Gavin Henson was the outstanding performer against Southland three days later when making plenty of ball carries and eating into the opposition lineout. Young, hungry and irreverent, he would be just the ticket.
Simon Easterby - along with Ryan Jones - looks set to be promoted to the Test 22. Lewis Moody has also been kept back in Wellington, though that would seem too callow a backrow at this level for Woodward, and Neil Back may yet double up from the bench. But Moody still looks set for promotion.
Shane Byrne, along with Kay, looks sure to pay the price for the lineout fiasco, even if Andy Robinson was just as culpable for changing the lineout calls late last week in what still looks a classic example of the paranoia that has gripped the Lions here.
The frontrow issue is made more puzzling by Andy Sheridan's place at loosehead against Manawatu. He is apparently deemed a tad on the lazy side and may just need a good runout in readiness for a role in Wellington given he has started only two games on tour.
In the backs Jason Robinson's selection on the wing against Manawatu confirms the suspicion Woodward has seen the light with regard to his loss of form. Sadly, that Geordan Murphy starts his fourth game out of the last seven on tour (all with the dirt-trackers) indicates his gamebreaking qualities are still not part of the Test equation.
Likewise Gordon D'Arcy, and perhaps his midfield partner Ollie Smith, would have to produce something sensational against Manawatu to have a role in Wellington, while Denis Hickie may have just missed out altogether this week given he played his third game of the tour against Southland a week ago.
Shane Williams, supposedly 23rd man in the first Test and hitherto confined to just two appearances on tour, is surely being closely monitored with a view to promotion. Then again Shane Horgan, who has been confined to three cameo appearances off the bench and just one start, against Taranaki in the second game, is again not involved. Neither is Will Greenwood.
Maybe Horgan is destined to start in the Westpac Stadium, be it at midfield or on the wing. There is a school of thought that a Horgan-Henson partnership would give the midfield a badly needed target runner as well as the flair of the enigmatic Welshman, and certainly the team needs every bit of individualism it can muster, all the more so after the loss of O'Driscoll.
Yet you suspect this is far too radical for Woodward, and it may be that Greenwood (along with Wilkinson) will start, in part to lend an experienced voice to Henson, seemingly a man of few words on the pitch.
Against what is presumed to be the weakest provincial side the tourists will face on this tour, those entering the 17,000-capacity Arena Manawatu can hardly be described as lions, much less lambs, to the slaughter. Of course this further confuses the picture. For how relevant are impressive individual performances against an NPC second division team?
Jason White, the big-hitting Scottish flanker who was unlucky to miss out on the original Lions selection when recovering from a fractured hand, is the latest to be called up in addition to Cockbain.
The Lions could have saved themselves half the money by calling up a certain lock/flanker from Toulouse. Oh well.
Previous meetings: (1908) Manawatu 3 Lions 12; (1930) Manawatu 8 Lions 34; (1950) Manawatu 8 Lions 13; (1959) Manawatu 6 Lions 26; (1966) Manawatu 8 Lions 17; (1971) Manawatu 6 Lions 39; (1977) Manawatu 12 Lions 18.
Odds (Paddy Power): Handicap betting (Manawatu + 50pts) 10/11 Manawatu, 20/1 draw, 10/11 Lions.
Forecast: This time the midweekers have the carrot, however remote, of making the Test team.
POSSIBLE XV FOR 2ND TEST: Thomas; Horgan, Greenwood, Henson, Lewsey; Wilkinson, Peel; Jenkins, Thompson, White, O'Callaghan, O'Connell, Easterby, Back, R Jones. Replacements: Byrne, Sheridan, Shaw, Moody, Dawson, S Jones, S Williams.
15 Geordan Murphy (Ireland)
14 Jason Robinson (England)
13 Ollie Smith (England)
12 Gordon D'Arcy (Ireland)
11 Shane Williams (Wales)
10 Charlie Hodgson (England)
9 Chris Cusiter (Scotland)
1 Andrew Sheridan (England)
2 Gordon Bulloch (Scotland)
3 John Hayes (Ireland)
4 Simon Shaw (England)
5 Donncha O'Callaghan (Ireland)
6 Martin Corry (England)
7 Martyn Williams (Wales)
8 Michael Owen (Wales)
Replacements: Andy Titterrell (England), Matt Stevens (England), Brent Cockbain (Wales), Neil Back (England), Gareth Cooper (Wales), Ronan O'Gara (Ireland), Mark Cueto (England).
