Can Cristiano Ronaldo break his own record against Atlético?

Real Madrid secured La Décima in 2014 after chasing their 10th European Cup for 12 years. Sergio Ramos' header deep into second-half injury time cancelled out Diego Godin's opener to set Real Madrid on their way against Atlético Madrid, with Gareth Bale, Marcelo and Cristiano Ronaldo finishing off the 4-1 victory in extra time. The clubs meet again on Saturday as Real Madrid chase La Undecima. Atlético, meanwhile, are hoping to secure their first European Cup, having lost two finals.

Cristiano Ronaldo’s form will be key in Milan. He scored his 17th goal of the 2013-14 competition when he tucked a penalty past Thibaut Courtois in the dying minutes of the final in Lisbon, becoming the competition’s record scorer in the process. With 16 goals in this season’s Champions League – more than any other player and as many as Atlético have scored in their 12 matches – Ronaldo can break his own record this weekend.

However, the 31-year-old is a doubt for the final, having sustained a knock in training this week. Given his mentality and physical stature, it’s unlikely Ronaldo will miss the last game of the campaign. “I am fine,” he said on Tuesday. “I had a little problem in training, a dead leg as they say here, but tomorrow or the next day I will be fine. It was a minor scare, a knock.”

Real Madrid have only won one of their last six competitive meetings with Diego Simeone’s battling side, and that was down to a late Javier Hernández goal at the Bernabéu against 10 men following Arda Turan’s sending off. Ronaldo has not always had the best goal return against Atlético – 15 goals in 24 competitive outings – but, with 51 goals this season, he remains their most likely matchwinner.

Ronaldo comes into the final in fine form, having scored nine goals in his last seven appearances in all competitions. His 8.17 rating is the fourth best in the Champions League this season, while an average of 8.1 shots per game in the competition is the the most by far – showing his unwavering confidence in his goalscoring ability.

Atlético’s defence is among the best in Europe, having conceded just six goals in the Champions League this season. The way they shut out Barcelona and Bayern Munich on home turf was nothing short of spectacular, given their attacking power. Diego Simeone’s regimented backline provides the foundation for success, with opponents often struggling to break them down.

They remain compact in defence and midfield to force attackers down the flanks to put balls into the box. Given the defensive qualities of centre-backs Diego Godín and José María Giménez, the experience and positional discipline of Filipe Luís and Juanfran, and the goalkeeping ability of Jan Oblak, Atlético back themselves to deal with any threat from wide positions.

The defensive discipline of the team ensures Atlético stay narrow and extremely tough to break down. This approach could be the best way to limit Ronaldo’s influence. Starting on the left, he likes to cut on to his right foot before going for goal – regardless of distance or the number of players standing between him and the back of the net.

The tactic has served Ronaldo well in the past, but Atlético’s shape minimises his impact. With Atlético putting every player behind the ball and working tirelessly to deny opponents, Ronaldo will find that space is at a premium for him to cut inside and shoot. While Real Madrid ultimately overcame Atlético back in 2014, it speaks volumes that it took until the 93rd minute for Ramos to head home the equaliser.

Simeone was forced into an early change when Diego Costa’s hamstring problem flared up, putting Atlético on the back foot despite their early lead. Without the extra substitution to freshen up his side, gaps began to appear as tiredness set in and allowed Real Madrid to pile on the pressure as the minutes ticked by. Simeone is unlikely to make a similar mistake again, with the loss in Lisbon serving as a lesson. But Ronaldo is more than capable of moments of magic and would love to end the season as Real Madrid’s hero – and break his own goalscoring record in the process.

(Guardian service)