ENGLAND will learn tonight how fair stands the wind for France next summer. A victory over Italy and their outlook for the 1998 World Cup will appear settled, a draw and it will be more a case of scattered showers with possible outbreaks of thunder, a defeat and whatever is left of the euphoria from Euro `96 will become enveloped in a cold front of renewed pessimism.

So far Glenn Hoddle has done well, winning his opening three World Cup qualifiers, a feat only previously achieved by Bobby Robson. Beating Moidova, Poland and Georgia has clearly maintained the level of confidence that England gained from reaching the last four of the European Championship under Terry Venables.

These games, however, were merely the antipasto compared to the task facing the side Hoddle eventually fields tonight. Whatever the state of world football at any given time, whoever is winning and losing, four countries will always provide the yardsticks by which the true quality of an England team has to be judged. Brazil, Argentina and Germany are three of them; the fourth will provide the opposition at Wembley this evening.

The present Italian side is seasoned rather than inspired. The recent 2-0 victory over Northern Ireland in a friendly hastily arranged by the new coach, Cesare Maldini, offered few clues as to what the Azzuris' state of mind might be.

Maldini's squad may be more experienced than Hoddle's, but he is still shuffling his defence around and Alan Shearer may never have a better chance to convince the sceptics that he is equally effective against tight marking.

Hoddle's team selection still depends on the fitness of Tony Adams and Paul Ince. Adams is still England's most natural leader while losing Ince from midfield would be like unwedging a swinging door, and Poland have already shown what can happen if the ball is frequently given away.

Hoddle needs Ince and Batty as a platform in midfield. No Adams, and he will probably play Sol Campbell in the middle of the back three flanked by Gary Neville and Stuart Pearce.

The temptation to play Shearer, but not Ferdinand, and support him with McManaman and Merson must be strong. Hoddie, however, has included a surprise choice in each of his three games so far and tonight Matthew Le Tissier, rather than Merson, may be the man. Either way this could be the watershed of Paul Gascoigne's international career.

Forget penalty shoot-outs and three of England's games at Wembley in Euro '96 ended in draws. Another this evening would be no great surprise and clearly such a result would suit Italy. Hoddle half-suspects that Maldini senior has a point in mind.

Italy will probably employ Panucci as sweeper rather than Ferrara, as they did against the Irish. Ferrara is expected to rejoin Costacurta, although the latter is struggling for fitness, as a marker with Paolo Maldini returning to left-back. Di Livio will continue on the right.

With Maldini and Di Matteo on the Italian left England's right flank will need to be especially alert. At least Gary Nevilie and David Beckham would be no strangers to the Italian experience after Manchester United's Champions League encounters with Juventus.

Stopping Gianfranco Zola has become an obsession in some English minds. The Chelsea urchin is a potential match-winner, to be sure, but the long passes of Albertini delivered into space behind England's wing-backs could be as big a threat. Casiraghi looks like leading the Italian attack, with Zola in close support. Chiesa rather than Ravanelli, will be the first option if Casiraghi struggles.

Poor finishing was partly responsible for Italy's early departure from the European Championship, but they still produced the best football of the tournament, albeit briefly. Since failing to reach the 1958 World Cup, moreover, Italy have only lost four qualifying matches.

Last summer England half-cocked a snook at football precedent when they beat Holland 4-1, but history and Germany caught up with them in the end. Tonight Shearer, and Beckham perhaps, can banish Italy to the dusty records of old scores. But a draw, possibly 1-1, is a more likely, outcome.