Predictable end in sight

On a quiet first weekend of this new European Championship campaign today's game between the Republic of Ireland and Russia should…

On a quiet first weekend of this new European Championship campaign today's game between the Republic of Ireland and Russia should command the attention of more than the football supporters in the two countries involved. The truth is, though, there is little of interest to rival its attraction in an opening round of a qualifying competition where pretty much of the groups look to be foregone conclusions. Emmet Malone previews Euro 2004

True, Spain's visit to Greece has some slight potential to produce a shock but the reality is that the situation of Raul and co, like that of Germany and Italy, was fairly accurately summed up by former French international Just Fontaine when, in reference to his own national side's management upheaval, he observed, that they scarcely need a coach to get them to Portugal 2004.

One might add well add the Netherlands to the list but for the fact that if the last campaign did anything for the Dutch it was teach them that they definitely need somebody in charge of their national side that can get the best out of their many talented players.

Nobody ever doubted the qualities of a team, one that could so easily have won the last European title, when they took on the Republic in either Amsterdam and Dublin last time around. Their shortcomings, however, were so obvious as well, not least their sense of complacency ahead of their home match against the Republic and the tactical errors committed by Louis van Gaal in Dublin (forget the cheese sandwiches, what was Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink doing on the right side of midfield?) that finally did so much to kill off their hopes of a place at the World Cup.

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Dick Advocaat's spell at Rangers may ultimately be judged to have been a failure because of his inability to bring any form of European success but he is a man who knows the players now available to him very well and should know much better how to get them to perform.

With so much quality at his disposal and the bitter memory of their recent failure fresh in the players' minds the Dutch should not have too much trouble overcoming the Czechs - much less Austria, Belarus or Moldova.

Only three groups look to have any real potential to produce a genuine three- or four-way battle for qualification. Group Four, involving Sweden, Poland and Hungary, Group Two, where Romania, Denmark, Norway and perhaps Bosnia-Herzegovina will be involved, and Group Eight, which involves Belgium, Croatia and Bulgaria. The problem is that none contains a team whose absence from Portugal would be mourned outside of the countries themselves with even the best of them in recent years, Croatia, having slipped back considerably since finishing third at France '98.

Not so far, though, as their neighbours Yugoslavia whose once proud domestic league now teeters on the edge of collapse due to dwindling interest among the local population. The upshot for national coach Dejan Savicevic is that clubs are unable to hang on to, or effectively develop, young players while long-established stars like Pedran Mijatovic and Slavisa Jokanovic, having been released before the summer, cannot be afforded back at home and find themselves without a club to play for.

As a result Italy should progress rather straightforwardly from Group Nine where a win at home over their only serious rivals next month would help a nation to put behind the national team's miserable performances and undignified exit from the World Cup.

Germany, meanwhile, should have what amounts to little more than 14 months of shooting practice against the likes of Scotland, Iceland and Lithuania at the end of which Rudi Voller will hope to have added an attack to the continent's most successful defensive unit. The beaten World Cup finalists can presumably even afford a couple of slip-ups along the way as those behind look certain to take points off each other in a difficult fight for second place.

Similarly France's Jacques Santini should have plenty of time to weigh up where things went wrong for the still defending European champions before his side is presented with a serious challenge. But many believe that the return of Zinedine Zidane, combined with the retirement of one or two of the team's poorest performers in Korea, will do much to cure the malaise.

The most interesting qualifying group from a neutral's perspective is Group Seven with Sven-Goran Eriksson's young England side set for a difficult head to head with World cup semi-finalists Turkey, a tussle that looks almost certain to come down to the two countries' meeting in Turkey next October.

Though Eriksson has brought his team on some way during his short time in charge there is still some considerable doubt regarding his ability to motivate players on the big occasions. The fact David Beckham and Michael Owen played through injuries may ultimately have contributed to the team's defeat by Brazil but the lack of any fight displayed while behind to 10 men late on suggests that the Swede has yet to hit on the correct balance between his more cerebral approach and the more traditional blood and guts element of the England game.

If he has not hit on it by the time his team faces the Turks for the first time next April then he may well have problems. Considered not so along ago to be soft touches on the international stage England's rivals have improved dramatically in recent years and performed outstandingly well at the World Cup where players like Rustu Recber, Hasan Sas and Umit Davala all proved their quality.

It is an unfortunate draw for the English, who will now be doing well to avoid another detour through the play-offs.

England's opponents today, of course, need have no such worries. As hosts in two years' time the Portuguese will start their preparations for Euro 2004 without anything even approaching a competitive game to keep them on their toes between now the start of the tournament.

For the much celebrated Golden Generation, the players that won the Youth World Cup in Saudi Arabia in 1999 and then successfully retained it in front of 120,000 of their supporters in Lisbon two years later, this really does look like the last chance to prove their worth at senior level.

Players like Figo, Rui Costa and Joao Pinto have perhaps no more than one major championships left in them.

But who would bet that the other 15 countries - 10 group winners and five from the play-offs involving the runners up - won't simply end up making up the numbers for a team whose stage has been expensively set for a fairytale ending.