RUGBY/Ireland tour of New Zealand: Graham Henry and his All Blacks brains trust dare to announce every squad and team selection with one eye fixed very firmly on the 2007 World Cup. Given his unequalled strength in depth, extraordinary run of success and the "holy grail" the World Cup has become for New Zealand, he can afford to more than most, even if you're only ever one defeat away from a pasting as an All Blacks coach.
Eddie O'Sullivan is in a pretty strong position himself - compared with England's Andy Robinson for one. Yet contrast the All Blacks' approach with the relative immediacy of O'Sullivan's selections and you can't but feel New Zealand's preparations for every eventuality in France next year are far more advanced.
As with Ireland vis-a-vis Paul O'Connell and Brian O'Driscoll, even the All Blacks have players who are less replaceable than others, namely the freakishly talented Richie McCaw and Daniel Carter. But at least they have an array of understudies to McCaw - Marty Holah starts at seven this Saturday on his home ground and Chris Masoe plays against the Pumas in Buenos Aires two weeks later.
Henry and co also continue to invest in the mercurial talents of Luke McAlister, despite his limited experience at 10 with the Blues, and on Saturday he plays his sixth Test since making his debut last summer against the Lions.
Much has been made here about the omission of former All Blacks captain and Crusaders linchpin Reuben Thorne from even the 39-man squad, and particularly his apparently poor treatment. But this is all part of Henry's search for more dynamic, ball-carrying blindside flankers, incorporating one who can cover lock.
The surprise selection at six of his captain McCaw, indisputably the best openside on the planet, might also be with one eye on the possibility of McCaw being forced to play there in the World Cup, even for the last 20 minutes of, say, a knockout match.
To accommodate three specialist hookers and scrumhalves in his 30-man World Cup squad 16 months hence, Henry wants this kind of flexibility, such as picking just three specialist locks. That the best of those, Chris Jack, has been rerouted to Saturday's first Test in light of Ali Williams's ankle strain does not enhance Ireland's chances of an historic breakthrough win.
Perhaps Donncha O'Callaghan and Mick O'Driscoll can cover six or eight in an emergency as well, or say, Simon Easterby could cover lock at a real push, though O'Sullivan's thinking on this appears less than clear-cut.
Neil Best, unsurprisingly, was yesterday promoted to number six for Saturday's game, in part because à la the absent Easterby (who would not appear to be the prototype for a modern blindside flanker in the All Blacks' way of thinking) the Ulster flanker is a proven lineout option. But no less than Easterby, the Irish coach clearly remains sweet on Alan Quinlan, who simply doesn't have enough rugby in him to justify even a place on the bench, which instead goes to Keith Gleeson.
The omission of Jeremy Staunton from even the replacements' bench this Saturday leaves cover for Ronan O'Gara at outhalf far less advanced with the World Cup in mind. Instead, Geordan Murphy will cover outhalf, while Girvan Dempsey is the back-up kicker. Hmmm. Suffice to say, O'Gara's physical well-being now seems more important than even O'Connell's or O'Driscoll's.
Leinster gambled on not having specialist cover for Felipe Contepomi this season, and O'Sullivan is best placed of all to make the following rationale: "I just feel at the moment, he (Staunton) is new in the squad, there's a lot of new systems going on around him, and he hasn't been involved with the team for a while, so I'm just giving him time to settle in. I feel he's just not quite ready yet if he had to go into a Test game five or 10 minutes in."
Nevertheless, added to the coach's recent pining for the retired David Humphreys and expressed hope that the Ulsterman might answer Ireland's call come the World Cup if needs be, this is hardly a statement of faith in Staunton. And the "disappointed" Staunton, who won his second and third caps at outhalf in Japan last summer, will be the first to realise that.
Although it's less evident in the selection of this 30-man squad, O'Sullivan clearly had half an eye, at any rate, on next year's World Cup when jettisoning several of his 30-somethings this season. Some of them, such as Anthony Foley, Keith Gleeson and Denis Hickie, have been restored to this 30-man squad, with his tyros packed off for Churchill Cup duty instead.
Rarely does O'Sullivan throw young players straight into frontline Test rugby. In his thinking, and in striking contrast to Henry, they have to serve their time at a high level of provincial/club rugby and in the Irish squad. As he did last November, Henry will broaden his frontrow options by pitching in a debutant loosehead, Clarke Dermody, this Saturday, or bring players on tour with little or no Super 14 or even NPC experience. But O'Sullivan doesn't do punts.
The eventual promotion of Gordon D'Arcy as O'Driscoll's midfield partner was a rare, and it has to be said, very rewarding exception. Denis Leamy and Andrew Trimble have been other examples of young players elevated relatively quickly into the front line, and reinvented to a degree from their provincial positions.
Jerry Flannery was an exception to the O'Sullivan blueprint, and here circumstances (primarily injury to Frankie Sheahan, a belief Shane Byrne's powers were on the wane and Flannery's compelling form with Munster) forced the coach's hand.
Even here, it should be remembered, O'Sullivan initially preferred Byrne and Rory Best to Flannery in the autumn. But Flannery's subsequent rise from Connacht and club rugby to Munster and on to Ireland in rapid order shows that it can be done. A gradual period of acclimatisation doesn't have to be a necessity.
Clearly, no less than Staunton, the likes of Foley and Anthony Horgan are not going to enjoy much game time out here either. Which makes the omission from this squad of Jamie Heaslip and Robert Kearney all the more disappointing. If the O'Sullivan rationale is applied here, they've effectively been ruled out of the World Cup permutations already. Or if not, then invaluable time for acclimatisation, à la Staunton now, has been lost. Of course, recording an historic first win ever over the All Blacks constitutes an end in itself, and picking a full-strength team is a means to that end.
If Henry were running the Irish ship, you can't but feel Staunton would be on the bench this Saturday - and perhaps pencilled in to start against the Wallabies in Perth - and Heaslip and Kearney would both be on this trip too.
