Leinster to take another giant stride towards winning title

RUGBY: Leinster v Munster: TWO TRIBES go to war and all that

RUGBY: Leinster v Munster:TWO TRIBES go to war and all that. First and second in the Magners League, first and seventh in the ERC's European rankings, live on television and yet, no doubt, it could easily have outsold the 18,500 capacity almost twice over.

As all-Irish games go there's none bigger and the latest instalment of a fractious and feisty if respectful rivalry could hardly be better primed.

It wasn't always like this. Back in the days before Ross O'Carroll-Kelly or Risteard Cooper's "John Hayes Is a Ligind", in Declan Kidney's first season in charge of Munster, there was space aplenty on the banks of Dooradoyle for an august 1998 interpro. How times have changed.

It's long since gone beyond the realms of a quasi-Final Trial. It's now much more important than that. The inaugural Celtic League final of December 2001 was a starting point, and the mother of all clashes in the Heineken Cup semi-final, two years ago this month, took it to another level. With the mushrooming in support came a more divisive rivalry off the pitch, which was matched on it, though amongst the players anyway there were signs prior to the last meeting of an attempt to keep a lid on things. For the time being anyway.

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For Leinster, today offers the chance of taking a giant stride toward the league title by completing their first double over their arch Irish rivals and a 10th successive league win. No one beats Munster twice, in a row anyway, goes their mantra and their supporters won't have been shy of reminding them of that. Eleven points adrift with a game in hand, Munster have to win to maintain ambitions of their own double and far from being sated by last week's win in Gloucester, Kidney's selection constitutes a clear statement of intent.

As expected, only Marcus Horan and David Wallace are ruled out. Hence, the only changes see the return of Peter Stringer, Mick O'Driscoll and Anthony Foley, with Paul O'Connell (perhaps mindful of his back) and Tomas O'Leary moving to the bench, with ex-Leinster flanker Niall Ronan coming into the 22.

In the continuing absence of Brian O'Driscoll, Gordon D'Arcy and Christian Warner, Girvan Dempsey returns at the expense of Michael Berne, with Rob Kearney shifting to the wing and Luke Fitzgerald joining Felipe Contepomi in midfield. As makeshift midfields go, it has some potential. Keith Gleeson returns in the backrow, with ex-Munsterman Stephen Keogh moving to the bench.

Gone too are the clichéd perceptions of the teams. The prodigal return of the Leinster Tigers, Leo Cullen and Jennings, along with the Southern Hemisphere ballast of Ollie le Roux and Stan Wright, has enabled this Leinster pack to grunt and grind with the best of them, as they demonstrated in Musgrave Park last November. Meantime, the infusion of some Kiwi sidestepping and finishing has sharpened Munster's offloading game and cutting edge.

Each can adapt to whatever conditions apply, and the forecast is for showers. Thus, it's more difficult than ever to identify where the game might be won or lost, never mind who. As last week showed, Buckley is still on a learning curve as a loosehead, though that was against a renowned Gloucester scrum while Denis Hurley is a composed 23-year-old (with four wins from four for Munster this season).

Elsewhere, experience courses through every pore of every department. Munster do have more proven lineout options and will go after the Bernard Jackman throw, but it would be no great surprise if Leo Cullen and Malcolm O'Kelly stave off that threat.

At face value, Leinster look worse hit by their spate of midfield injuries, but Johnny Sexton and Fitzgerald bring a flair which could well be inspired by the occasion, especially alongside a fired-up Contepomi.

It could well come down to the performances, or moments, of individuals on the day; be it Contepomi or Fitzgerald, Lifeimi Mafi or Doug Howlett.

Mentally, Munster's pride remains wounded by last November, they know how much it means to their supporters, they have the confidence and momentum of last week and know they must win. Against that, the outrageous rescheduling of their back game against Ulster has thrown a spanner in their league ambitions. So while the stakes seem higher for Munster, even with the buffer of an 11-point lead Leinster have more to play for.

This is their one shot at glory. They also have home advantage, and as they showed on Munster's only previous visit here, have quickly built the RDS into a bit of a fortress.

Most likely, it could go either way until the last play, and either way, it should be compelling.

LEINSTER: G Dempsey; S Horgan, L Fitzgerald, F Contepomi, R Kearney; J Sexton, C Whitaker; O le Roux, B Jackman, S Wright, L Cullen (capt), M O'Kelly, S Jennings, K Gleeson, J Heaslip. Replacements: (from) B Blaney, C Healy, S Knoop, T Hogan, S Keogh, C Keane, E O'Malley, M Berne, G Brown.

MUNSTER: D Hurley; D Howlett, L Mafi, R Tupoki, I Dowling; R O'Gara (capt), P Stringer; T Buckley, J Flannery, J Hayes, D O'Callaghan, M O'Driscoll, A Quinlan, D Leamy, A Foley. Replacements: F Sheahan, F Pucciariello, P O'Connell, N Ronan, T O'Leary, P Warwick, K Lewis.

Referee: C White (England).

FIVE-GAME FORMGUIDE (all competitions): Leinster - L W W W W. Munster - W L W W W.

LAST FIVE MEETINGS: ('07-'08) Munster 3 Leinster 10; ('06-'07) Munster 25 Leinster 11; Leinster 27 Munster 20; ('05-'06) HC Leinster 6 Munster 30; Leinster 35 Munster 23.

LEADING POINTS SCORERS: Leinster - Felipe Contepomi 89; Johnny Sexton 59. Munster - Paul Warwick 95, Ronan O'Gara 35.

LEADING TRY SCORERS: Leinster - Luke Fitzgerald, Jamie Heaslip and Shane Horgan 5 each, Gordon D'Arcy 3. Munster - Ian Dowling, Paul Warwick, Tony Buckley, Doug Howlett, Denis Leamy and Donncha Ryan 2 each.

BETTING (Paddy Power): 8/11 Leinster, 20/1 Draw, 11/10 Munster. Handicap betting (= Munster + 2pts) 10/11 Leinster, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Munster.

FORECAST: Leinster to win.

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley

Gerry Thornley is Rugby Correspondent of The Irish Times