Great opportunity to finish on a high

RUGBY: Forget the future. Today a strange, roller-coaster and ultimately most rewarding of Irish seasons comes to a conclusion in Perth and this Irish team expect. Having come up short of the holy grail that is a first win in the Southern Hemisphere against one of the Big Three over the last two Saturdays, this constitutes a last and undoubtedly best opportunity.

For all the talk of new blood and a team in transition throughout 2005-2006, this is an experienced Irish team with all bar three of the starting XV multi-capped at this level.

At provincial and international level they have proved their winning mentality. Against New Zealand they came up short of this primary goal, but their calmness under pressure, their mental strength in coming back from 5-0 and 17-0 deficits, suggested a new mental strength.

This is now, arguably, a better Irish team than the one that let slip the final pool game in the 2003 World Cup in Melbourne. With Brian O'Driscoll and Paul O'Connell back on board, much more player input, a more aggressive presence in the tackle and at the breakdown, this is undoubtedly a happier, more effective team than the one that lost limply to Australia in November.

Whatever about the Wallabies' equally experienced and proven collection of backs, theirs is a far less proven and less obdurate forward unit than the one of 2003. However, with their creator-in-chief Stephen Larkham and their "go-to" strike runner Stirling Mortlock both back in harness, it is undoubtedly a better back line and probably a better Wallaby team than the one that beat Ireland 30-14 only eight months ago.

Yet whereas there is a tried-and-tested look to Ireland, the jury is still out on a Wallabies team admittedly rejuvenated by a new coaching regime.

Failure to obtain a win will surely leave Eddie O'Sullivan open to valid questions about maximising his resources on this tour, or at any rate strengthening the depth of the squad and developing players in some positions where the options are thin, notably outhalf. After all, this has to be part of the coach's remit, and everyone else, notably Graham Henry and his brains trust, seems to be pressing ahead on this mission, even if it has degraded Test rugby in the process.

Even Jeremy Staunton's belated promotion to the bench does not come with the stated policy of making him the first-choice back-up should Ronan O'Gara become injured. One of the reasons stated has been Staunton's unfamiliarity with Ireland's defensive system, which is ironic when you think of where the most costly blips have been.

In any event, the immediate target of a win, as in the last two weeks, remains the primary objective, and certainly this would seem to represent Ireland's best chance of obtaining a first win away in the Southern Hemisphere since Ollie Campbell masterminded the the two-Test 1979 series wins in Brisbane and Sydney.

Ireland have traditionally performed better against Australia than against the other Southern Hemisphere superpowers, not only making a long-awaited breakthrough win of any kind against the Big Three since 1979 when O'Gara kicked six penalties in the rain-sodden home win four years ago.

They have also, of course, rattled better Australian sides than these Wallabies, most notably the soon-to-be world champions of 1991 and the finalists of 2003, both times losing by a solitary point. Nevertheless, that 2002 triumph in Lansdowne Road remains the only win in the last 15 meetings.

To repeat it, Ireland will surely have to achieve much of what they did in New Zealand and perhaps improve in other areas. They probably don't have the scrummaging firepower to put an unproven, callow Wallaby front row to the sword, but if they can disrupt the Tai McIsaac throw, tighten the screw territorially, and compete as fiercely at the breakdown, they can frustrate the talented Australian backs by denying them quick, go-forward ball and taking the space away from them, make double tackles and stop the offloads.

But one can see Chris Latham, as he did in November, Lote Tuqiri and Mark Gerard attacking the 10 channel, and if they get over the gain line and obtain quick ball, no one is better at locating the weaknesses and putting one of the second wave of runners through the holes than George Gregan and Larkham.

Even living off scraps, the Wallabies look more capable of striking off turnover ball or from long range. The brilliant Brian O'Driscoll setpiece try and the combination of forward intensity and backline execution that led to O'Gara putting Andrew Trimble over showed what the team are capable of. But the backs have been rehashing moves and not always accurately, whereas the Wallabies seem to be playing more on the hoof.

It promises to be an absorbingly good contest in good conditions. There wasn't a cloud in the sky yesterday, with temperatures in the low 20s, a day after mid-winter's day.

In an interesting clash of styles, there will be plenty of variety; for example aerial duels from crosskicks to tall, aerially athletic and able wings like Tuqiri and the underused Shane Horgan.

O'Sullivan yesterday bridled, understandably, at analysis of what this team are about, where the level of commentary and punditry can be quite uninformed. He admitted that normally at this juncture players, mentally, could have their boarding tickets in their hands before kick-off given that four insufficient but well-earned weeks' holidays begin with the full-time whistle. You could also see where he was coming from when he ventured that defence could be the key. The higher-scoring this game becomes, perhaps the more likely Australia are to win. The lower scoring, the more likely Ireland.

At +13 over here, and +nine at home, Ireland look a great bet on the handicap. But as regards winning it, both mentally and physically the third game of an end-of-season tour could well be the most taxing, mentally as much as physically.

A real opportunity, undoubtedly. But are Ireland best primed to take it?

Overall head-to-head: Played 24, Australia 17 wins, 0 draws, Ireland 7 wins. Biggest win: Australia 46-10, Brisbane 1999. Ireland 27-12, Brisbane 1979. Odds (Paddy Power): 2/7 Australia, 22/1 Draw, 12/5 Ireland. Handicap odds (Ireland + 9 pts) 10/11 Australia, 22/1 Draw, 10/11 Ireland. Forecast: Australia to win.