Geos looks best bet in Istabraq's absence

It is impossible to expect anything else to fully fill the yawning gap left by Istabraq in tomorrow's AIG Champion Hurdle but Geos looks set to make the best fist of it.

For the last four years, the Leopardstown highlight has been about Istabraq and little else. So much so that without him, the relative paucity of other top hurdlers around becomes even more obvious.

Ned Kelly for instance has been the popular ante-post fancy all week and yet his credentials consist of a couple of placed efforts and a burst blood vessel on his last start: Hardly inspiring stuff.

The John Magnier-owned horse cut out spectacularly in the Hatton's Grace in early December and strictly on that running has 12 lengths to make up on Liss A Paoraigh.

Ned Kelly's trainer Edward O'Grady said yesterday: "He is fine and we are hoping for the best. We are not thinking beyond Sunday."

That's an understandable sentiment for a horse who has always been well touted but who has also looked distinctly vulnerable once put anywhere close to the top class.

Of course the sceptical could argue he is nowhere near such a level tomorrow but bar Valiramix and Landing Light, this is about it as regards potential challengers to Istabraq's crown. Ned Kelly is the shortest of them for Cheltenham at a best priced 16 to 1.

He faces a trio of horses travelling from Britain to try and become the first winner from there since Collier Bay in 1996.

Milligan and The French Furze are decent but limited and will be at home on the testing ground.

Geos looks by far the best of them despite having had his last start in November over fences.

The Henderson horse won the Bula and the Christmas Hurdles last season and was widely put up as the only one likely to give Istabraq a race in the championship itself. That theory was never tested because of foot-and-mouth but Geos does come here officially rated a stone better than anything else in the race.

He also has winning form in France on very deep going which is relevent considering the ground at Leopardstown was "soft" yesterday with more rain forecast.

That proven ability to quicken up could count against Liss A Paoraigh who is regarded as a more likely contender for the Stayers' Hurdle and who took a crashing fall here last month.

The other home runners look outclassed although Penny Rich could again run above himself here. That leaves Ned Kelly again filling the role of "potential" horse. The difference is this time he will have to produce a win. Geos, however, looks the bet to deny him.

In contrast the Baileys Arkle Cup looks relatively straighforward. Moscow Flyer, even without regular rider Barry Geraghty, looks good to retain his position as the main Irish hope for the Arkle at Cheltenham.

A shock tip up on his fencing debut is the only blot on his steeplechase career to date and in the process Moscow Flyer has become more convincing as a likely star.

Tony McCoy, over here for the Milligan ride in the big race, can make the trip pay with Direct Bearing in the opener while Pietro Vannucci could be the solution to the novice hurdle. Willie Mullins picked up the Listed handicap chase with Florida Pearl two years ago and can follow up with Its Time For A Win this time round.