Limerick’s practised survival instincts give them edge over erratic Galway

Saturday

All-Ireland SHC semi-final: Limerick v Galway, Croke Park, 6pm [Live, RTÉ2 and BBC Two NI]

The counties square up for a third time in four years at the semi-final stage. Given that the previous two contests ended in one-score wins for Limerick, could it be that the fixture is impervious to form?

Three years ago, Limerick were on their wintry way to handing out a thrashing to Waterford in that year’s Covid All-Ireland whereas last year the destination was an uncomfortably narrow defeat of Kilkenny. This season the consensus is that the champions have slipped a bit but yet no opponent has landed a telling punch.

Clare toppled them in April but due to Tipperary’s meltdown against Waterford, the defeat didn’t derail Limerick in the slightest.

They have injury difficulties with captain Declan Hannon not starting only a second championship match in manager John Kiely’s 38 in charge since 2017. Seán Finn has been priced in at this stage after his injury more than two months ago.

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[ History echoes for Limerick as they try to replace the irreplaceable Declan Hannon ]

Without hurling a storm, Limerick have surmounted all necessary obstacles. Their half backs have been reliable as ever but now must cope without Hannon, whose ability almost to freeze time makes him the guiding force when the pressure rises.

Gearóid Hegarty is the announced play for this difficulty, allowing Kyle Hayes to move to centre back. There is merit in the rumoured relocation of Cian Lynch, whose reading of the game and distribution skills would make him a good replacement for the captain as would his close-in ability to fish loose ball out of the densest rucks.

Galway have had two frustrating outings most recently. Getting mugged by Kilkenny was an expensive lesson but how necessary was it to learn that you must clear ball quickly from the approaches to your goal when defending a two-point lead at the end of a provincial final?

Similarly, the two-point win over Tipperary could have led to a defamation action against the scoreboard but again Galway were less comfortable than they should have been.

[ Joe Canning: Galway need to bring savage aggression to beat Limerick ]

Positives include the strong spine of the defence where the announced team restores Daithí Burke and Gearóid McInerney to their original positions, calming the nerves of Galway people whose instinctive view is that Burke brings better weapons to the edge of the square than the more statuesque McInerney – would Jake Morris have as deftly dispossessed Burke for Tipperary’s goal in Limerick?

Then again, Henry Shefflin may be happy with the counter-intuitive placing in which case the listed line-up is just whimsy.

Ultimately this is a clash between two teams not separated by much in terms of their ability to stake a claim to a match but Galway’s execution has been worryingly awry when it comes to getting the most out of their performances and putting up commensurate scores.

That’s not an issue for the champions, who have by hook or by crook stayed afloat despite fading at times. Survival instinct is a team’s friend when it gets to this stage of the season.

Verdict: Limerick

Sunday

All-Ireland SHC semi-final: Kilkenny v Clare, Croke Park, 4pm [Live, RTÉ2 and BBC Two NI]

A year ago, the consensus was that Clare after surviving the firestorms of Munster, would be too tempered by the experience not to beat a Kilkenny team that had limped through a dire Leinster final, albeit emerging with the Bob O’Keeffe.

We all know how that went.

Twelve months on, the punditry consensus won’t hear of a Clare win despite Brian Lohan’s team again having topped the provincial round robin and secured the best scoring difference and coming in as bookies’ favourites.

They also emerged from the Munster final again unsuccessful but less exhausted and even a little peeved not to have taken the chances to win the title. Nor were they pushed to any worthwhile extent in the quarter-finals by Dublin.

[ Galway’s Pádraic Mannion not beating himself up over his part in Kilkenny’s late winner ‘I am old enough now to be able to take it and ]

So why the downbeat mood? Partly it’s to do with last year’s trimming by the same opponents but also the dreaded uncertainty over Clare’s infirmary list. If they are missing all of the players causing concern but expected to play – McInerney, Conlon and O’Donnell – they’ll be hideously weakened.

Conlon’s absence of itself last year was bad enough even it can’t account on its own for the failure to show.

Even the probable continued loss of Conor Cleary at full back will stress the defence given the eager paws available to Kilkenny in the full forwards. They’ve scored nine goals in the past two matches but had that total been eight, they’d have lost both, maybe making this in theory a closer run match even if Clare are down a few bodies.

In last year’s encounter, Clare shot 24 wides to Kilkenny’s nine. Any sort of reasonable tightening of that incontinent shooting would have scaled down the 12-point defeat.

The inertia that afflicted them last year contributed to the slack finishing and poor individual displays but should not be as pronounced this time around.

At its best Clare’s running game and movement through the lines would create trouble for Kilkenny in the middle third where the Leinster champions are at their least settled but what happens at either end may well decide the match. Can Tony Kelly pick it up on last year’s near incarceration by Mikey Butler?

He looked busy the last day against Dublin and rattled off 3-4. Allowing that such licence is unlikely on Sunday he will surely still be more involved around the central corridor than on the periphery as was the case 12 months ago?

One of the big benefits of winning Leinster last year was said by then manager Brian Cody afterwards to have been the four weeks training and preparation it allowed after the helter-skelter provincial scheduling.

For all that Clare are expected to put in a greatly improved display, Kilkenny’s injury problems are clearing and in TJ Reid, Walter Walsh and Eoin Cody they have high-quality finishers and at the back Huw Lawlor is having another great season on the edge of the square plus the fitness of All-Star Adrian Mullen is a significant boost.

Taken together with all of the uncertainties facing their opponents, this looks like Kilkenny’s.

Verdict: Kilkenny