Frenetic run-in leaves cup ghosting behind

SOCCER ANGLES:FA Cup glory is not the priority of managers in the bottom half of the Premier League table as relegation battles take centre stage, writes Michael Walker

SEMI-SORRY to say so on such a Saturday morn, but relegation from the Premier League is this season’s FA Cup. Twelve teams from West Bromwich Albion to Hull City are separated by six points and over the next four months there will be weekly league scraps that fascinate more than a downgraded fourth-round FA Cup-tie of the former magnitude of Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur.

There is a full midweek Premier League programme on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing, in the next week alone, Hull v West Brom, Middlesbrough v Blackburn, Sunderland v Fulham, Portsmouth v Fulham and Newcastle v Sunderland. There are others. It’s six-pointer cliche heaven.

How can the cup compete? Once United v Spurs today would have been the talk of football. But on Wednesday at Burnley ’Arry Redknapp said: “We got Stoke-Tuesday.” It’s so tight in that Premier League, there’s not enough time for proper sentences.

As far as ’Arry is concerned, Stoke-Tuesday matters more now than United-Saturday, even at Old Trafford in the grand old FA Cup.

It’s another example that the cup’s not what it was. Come final day in May we will be expected to suspend this January knowledge, yet what we know from Redknapp is that the cup’s not what it was even when the fourth-round draw was made. And that was only 20 days ago.

Since then Tottenham have played Burnley twice in the League Cup semi-final – scratching through, fingernails splintered – plus Wigan and Portsmouth in the Premier League.

From those two league games Spurs have taken one point, which means that from their last six league games Spurs have amassed a whole three points. That ain’t no good to ’Arry. Priorities have been re-shaped. Hence: “We got Stoke-Tuesday.” Stoke did not play at Burnley-Wednesday; nor do they have an FA Cup fourth-round tie they do not want this weekend – they went out at Hartlepool in the third round. So they will be fresh and combative at White Hart Lane, despite being second-bottom with two points from their last six games.

’Arry knows this. He knows Stoke guarantee energy and that worries him. Spurs have a League Cup final and are still in the Uefa Cup. Stoke have only the league to throw all at.

It may sound pessimistic to Spurs followers but Redknapp is concerned about Stoke because like all 11 other managers at the bottom 12 clubs, he will have looked at the 16 remaining fixtures and identified games that must be won. Stoke at home is one of four Spurs must win.

Four from 16 does not sound particularly ambitious, but as Spurs won five from the first 22, it’s realistic. Stoke, Middlesbrough, Newcastle and West Brom, all at the Lane. Win those and Spurs will get to 33 points.

That would mean they could aim for draws at Hull, Sunderland and Blackburn – always good to thwart rivals on their own turf – and see what can be achieved against the likes of Arsenal and Chelsea at home and Villa and United away.

West Ham at home also offers potential gain. What Redknapp will want is for Spurs to be safe before the last two away trips, to Everton and Liverpool.

But ’Arry should be able to rest easy. On a far from scientific, deeply subjective and most definitely premature “analysis” of the relegation zone – especially so given the January window remains open – Tottenham should survive.

Forty points has been mentioned as a target by managers such as Blackburn’s Sam Allardyce. But it should be less – 36 kept Fulham up last season. Blackburn have 21 points from 21 games and a point per game feels a reasonable place now to mark as The Cut.

Tottenham should achieve 38, and Blackburn also. Having West Brom, Sunderland, Middlesbrough and Newcastle at home, as well as some spare cash, Manchester City should get there too. Bolton also look capable – they have played Arsenal, United and Liverpool twice already, and Villa away. They play six of this baking dozen at home. Bolton could finish in the top 10.

Fulham play five of their 11 rivals at Craven Cottage. They have 26 points and two games in hand on the bottom three. Why worry? But Manchester United have to be faced – twice; Arsenal and Chelsea away; Liverpool, Villa and Everton at home. These are opponents on missions.

Fulham’s next three home games are Portsmouth, West Brom and Hull. Two, if not three, need to be won if Fulham are not to be the plummet story of the season’s second half. Losing Jimmy Bullard yesterday to Hull could be defining for both clubs.

That leaves West Brom, Stoke, Middlesbrough, Sunderland, Newcastle, Portsmouth and Hull. Three from seven. Hull, Newcastle and Portsmouth play all six rivals. These are real cup ties.

Of these seven clubs’ run-ins, Boro’s looks toughest. They meet the current top five, beginning at Chelsea on Tuesday. There will be surprises along the way and Boro might have to manufacture two to stay up.

Hull will hope Bullard gives them a boost. A personal opinion is that he will. Bullard is under-rated. But will it be enough? West Brom’s visit next weekend will have both clubs tingling. After three consecutive victories suddenly the Baggies are back in it, and their April offers hope.

Whereas for Newcastle, April offers the midst of a run of United, Arsenal and Chelsea at St James’ Park. Newcastle have won five games so far, the feeling on Tyneside is bleak, Shay Given wants out and as of this morning 38 points looks beyond them.

The same can be said of Portsmouth, who play the current top four in the next six games. Sunderland’s room for error is non-existent too, 38 points might be a struggle for them. Like Portsmouth, the sense is that Sunderland are teetering. Ricky Sbragia needs a new centre-half to bring the composure Jonny Evans brought in the previous two post-Christmas campaigns. On paper Portsmouth’s defence is better than Sunderland’s and Newcastle’s.

That leaves Stoke-Tuesday. Let’s speculate Tottenham win then, but Stoke can still beat Portsmouth, Boro and Newcastle at home in the run-in. After all, they’ve beaten Arsenal and Villa. Stoke have that intimidating home, travelling spirit and although we’re back in cliche town, those go a long way in the cup.

Stoke can get to 36 points by this column’s estimates. It’d be a surprise if Middlesbrough do, although a pleasant one as Gareth Southgate and the club are impressive. Hull and West Brom will not make 36 either by these calculations nor Newcastle and Portsmouth. Sunderland need to beat Fulham at home on Tuesday night to make that total.

To conclude – most uneasily – Middlesbrough and West Brom to go down. Stoke to stay up. But then it is too tight. Cop-out? It’s January. It’s the magic of the cup.