New Zealand v Ireland: So Ireland face, as Eddie O'Sullivan put it during the week, the daunting prospect of scaling their Mount Everest again. Historically, beating the All Blacks has been the steepest of challenges for Irish teams and yet history has also shown us the first Test offers a better chance of a historic win than the second in Auckland's Eden Park a week tomorrow.

In 1992 and 2002, Ireland lost the first Tests in Dunedin 24-21 and 15-6. Piqued, the All Blacks won the rematches in Wellington and Auckland seven days subsequently 59-6 and 40-8. There is sound reasoning for all this.

Coming at the end of their season, Ireland are more match hardened, if wearier, when facing back-to-back combat. The rustier, remodelled All Blacks ought, in theory, to improve for the second run-out, all the more so if given a shake-up.

O'Sullivan and co have been unusually bullish, and understandably. Never has an Irish team been in such a state of rude health, mentally and physically, for an end-of-season tour. A large Irish presence is expected in the impressive 30,000-plus Waikato Stadium. The weather has been set fair all week, if not as fair as home, and allowing for the fears that come with a night-time kick-off in a New Zealand winter, you could roll a coin from one side of the pitch to the other.

Yet a similar whiff of optimism was in the air when the All Blacks came to Lansdowne Road without Dan Carter, Tana Umaga and a host of other frontline players last November, and look what happened then. The Irish crowd, stunned into stony silence for long stretches on a chastening afternoon, were grateful for a mere 45-7 thrashing.

Granted, Ireland were without Paul O'Connell and Brian O'Driscoll, and with their return came much greater player input along with significant changes in what Ireland were doing with and without the ball. The so-called "transitioning" from a largely kicking game to a ball-in-hand game was remodified.

Ireland didn't become Toulouse or even Leinster overnight, but nor were they as predictable or quite as patterned, the most striking examples being the last half-hour in Paris and that daring end-of-game play for the Triple Crown-winning try in Twickenham.

O'Sullivan has always been mistrustful of a blitz defence, but think back to the Lansdowne Road mauling by the All Blacks and Ireland's drift defence had become far too passive. Recall in particular, the first of Doug Howlett's second-half brace.

Attacking off a close-range lineout on the right, they moved the ball beautifully across the line for Howlett to come across field and score as the second last receiver. It was akin to a training routine against shadow opposition. So passive was the sliding Irish line the first and only hand laid on any All Blacks was when Howlett handed off Gordon D'Arcy five metres from the Irish try line.

Against France in February, albeit with hiccups, there were signs of some variation in the Irish defence and this was fine-tuned thereafter. To have any chance of unsettling the ring-rusty Blacks, one imagines Ireland will really have to mix up their game, attack the All Blacks' lineout and most of all defend in their faces, while being particularly aggressive at the breakdown.

Here, alas, the presence of both Richie McCaw and Marty Holah could give the All Blacks an edge in perhaps the key contest area, although Stuart Dickinson's presence as referee mightn't help the game's flow.

Remarkably, McCaw is one of only five survivors of that All Blacks line-up last November - Howlett, Ma'a Nonu, Aaron Mauger and Keven Mealamu are the others - but on close examination if anything it looks even stronger.

There are two debutants in the tight five, and another three on the bench, but wearing the mythical jersey for the first time will probably merely make them grow two inches taller and play another 10 per cent better. Furthermore, the power and dynamism of Nonu, Joe Rokocoko, Howlett and Mils Muliaina is as potent as any outside quartet in the game and will provide Ireland's defence with something of a litmus test.

Admittedly, on balance the same could perhaps be said of the half-dozen Irish changes - Jerry Flannery, O'Connell, Neil Best, David Wallace, Andrew Trimble and O'Driscoll for Shane Byrne, Malcolm O'Kelly, Simon Easterby, Johnny O'Connor, Anthony Horgan and Tommy Bowe.

Recall though, how the inexperienced Nicky Evans was cited as a potential weakness in Lansdowne Road last November, and serenely sailed through the game. Luke McAlister did try too many kicks and tricks when faced with a more aggressive Lions defence on his debut in the third Test last summer, but as when hauled off the bench in the Tri-Nations, his temperament came through impressively.

It is conceivable, perhaps, if Ireland made a quick start while the All Blacks were finding their feet, that McAlister might start forcing things, but then again, he has the wise and calming presence of Mauger alongside him.

They also have the option of Dave Hill, or even Mauger himself, as alternatives. The non-selection of specialist cover for Ronan O'Gara almost seems like an open invitation to target him, as if the All Blacks wouldn't have been inclined to launch Rodney So'oialo and other runners down that channel anyway.

Mentally too, New Zealand's fear of losing might be greater than Ireland's.

As Anton Oliver said during the week, none of these All Blacks want to suffer a first defeat to Ireland on their watch. By the by, they've also won their last 16 at home. Ireland's carrot may seem greater, but to a degree their season has been a largely successful one already.

These All Blacks are also fighting furiously to earn coveted places this year and, ultimately, for the World Cup amid the fiercest competition for places of any country in the world. Few if any - perhaps only McCaw and the absent Carter - can feel secure about anything, and none will be inclined to anyway.

There cannot be the same fear (collectively and individually) in the Irish ranks, and culturally, it simply means more to be an All Black in this country than it does to be an Irish player in Ireland. That's just the way it is.

All these psychological factors might come into play along with the real inner belief Warren Gatland talks about on this page, even subconsciously. One senses they did when Ireland dared to take a 23-7 lead early in the second half in his last game in charge, at Lansdowne Road in 2001; the day McCaw, a man-of-the-match debutant, also announced himself on the world stage.

So, while it wouldn't be a surprise to see Ireland scale a few dizzying heights, seeing the mountain top itself would be another thing.

NEW ZEALAND: M Muliaina (Blues); D Howlett (Blues), M Nonu (Hurricanes), A Mauger (Crusaders), J Rokocoko (Blues); L McAlister (Blues), B Kelleher (Cheifs); C Dermody (Highlanders), K Mealamu (Blues), C Hayman (Highlanders), C Jack (Crusaders), G Rawlinson (Blues), M Holah (Chiefs), R McCaw (Crusaders), R So'oialo (Wellington). Replacements: A Oliver (Highlanders), N Tialata (Hurricanes), T Flavell (Blues), J Kaino (Blues), J Cowan (Highlanders), D Hill (Chiefs), S Hamilton (Crusaders).

IRELAND: G Murphy (Leicester), S Horgan (Leinster), B O'Driscoll (Leinster, capt), G D'Arcy (Leinster), A Trimble (Ulster), R O'Gara (Munsyer), P Stringer (Munster); M Horan (Munster), J Flannery (Munster), J Hayes (Munster), D O'Callaghan (Munster), P O'Connell (Munster), N Best Ulster), D Wallace (Munster), D Leamy (Munster). Replacements: R Best (Ulster), B Young (Ulster), M O'Driscoll (Munster), K Gleeson (Leinster), I Boss (Ulster), D Hickie (Leinster), G Dempsey (Leinster).

Referee: Stuart Dickinson (Australia).

Overall head-to-head: Played 18, New Zealand 17 wins, 1 draw, Ireland 0 wins.

Biggest win: New Zealand - 59-6, Wellington 1992; Ireland - none.

Odds (Paddy Powers): 1/12 New Zealand, 33/1 Draw, 6/1 Ireland. Handicap odds (= Ireland +18pts) 10/11 New Zealand, 33/1 Draw, 10/11 Ireland.

Forecast: All Blacks to win.